Presidential campaigns fight to the finish line in Iowa

DES MOINES, Iowa — The American people finally have their opportunity to pick presidential candidates for the two major political parties and chart a new course for the country.

Iowa's caucuses come first tonight, followed by a blur of state-by-state voting during the next month and culminating in a 24-state "Tsunami Tuesday" on Feb. 5.

The series of caucuses, primaries and conventions will bring to an end the longest, costliest election run-up in U.S. history, the first since 1920 with no heir apparent in either party. Both parties are eager to turn the page on the George W. Bush era, particularly Democrats angry about the Iraq war, but also Republicans unhappy about such issues as illegal immigration.

First, though, it's Iowa's moment.

Iowa residents, who have seen far more of the candidates than people living anywhere else, will head to school gymnasiums, church basements and community centers tonight to start the presidential-selection process.

Analysts say the size of the turnout for each party, and the demographic makeup of first-time participants, will be huge factors in determining the outcome.

On the Republican side, the battle is between former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who left Iowa for California on Wednesday so that he could appear on "The Tonight Show" with Jay Leno.

Among Democrats, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards are the main contenders, with some polls showing Edwards falling slightly behind the other two.

All of the contenders are hoping the Iowa results will give them a boost heading into Tuesday's primary in New Hampshire.

Their Iowa campaign organizations were preparing their legions of precinct captains to make every effort to get supporters to the nearly 2,000 caucus sites at the appointed time. Weeks ago, for instance, the Clinton campaign purchased hundreds of snow shovels, just in case.

As it happens, weather will not be a problem. Forecasts call for a clear night with temperatures in the seasonable 20s.

By Wednesday, the campaign story line was familiar to Iowans, who have been inundated since the first salvos last January. Campaigns and interest groups spent more than $20 million on TV ads that appeared more than 10,000 times. Candidates visited Iowa towns more than 2,000 times.

With caucuses not scheduled to start until 6:30 p.m. CST, (4:30 Pacific) some candidates planned to keep campaigning until this afternoon. Two Republicans who had been among the missing returned to Iowa on Wednesday to join the action.

Arizona Sen. John McCain, who has focused on New Hampshire and has not run a single commercial in Iowa, came back for a 24-hour fly-around, with the apparent goal of nailing down third place.

Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, the prolific fundraiser who has spent heavily on Iowa television but has not campaigned much in the state, flew in for several events in Des Moines.

All other candidates were campaigning frenetically, no one more so than Edwards. On Wednesday night, he completed a 36-hour "Marathon for the Middle Class" with a rally/concert featuring singer John Mellencamp performing "This Is Our Country," which echoes Edwards' anti-corporate, populist message.

Clinton had five stops on her schedule Wednesday. But the main event was a prerecorded, two-minute pitch, which was televised before or after early evening newscasts on stations throughout the state.

"After all the town meetings, the pie and coffee," Clinton said in the video, "it comes down to this: Who is ready to be president and ready to start solving the big challenges we face on Day One?"

Obama finished with a late rally in Des Moines.

The other Democrats who mounted serious campaigns in Iowa — Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd — soldiered on. The three have been campaigning virtually nonstop in Iowa for months.

Among Democratic strategists, turnout had been the prime subject of conversation in recent days.

The consensus is that a huge increase in caucus participation — about 125,000 Democrats participated four years ago — would benefit Obama. He's popular among people younger than 40, college students, political independents and some Republicans, who are permitted to register as Democrats at the caucus door.

A more modest increase, the theory goes, might help Clinton, who is relying on large numbers of women older than 50. A lesser one would be good news for Edwards, who is big among union members and perennial caucus attendees.

"If the turnout's a reasonable number, I feel fine," said Joe Trippi, Edwards' chief strategist. "If it's over 175,000, which I can't see and which it's never been, we could be in some trouble."

Huckabee, meanwhile, urged followers to shake up the party by propelling him to victory in a contest where he has been outspent 20-1 and harshly criticized by party icons such as Rush Limbaugh.

"You can tell your grandchildren the caucus turned America on its ear," Huckabee said in Mason City. "We decided to stand on issues that mattered to us."

Romney hammered Huckabee on the air but delivered positive words about family values on the stump.

"I will not embarrass you in the White House," he told supporters. "We'll do our very best to make you proud."

From here on, the political schedule is packed. After New Hampshire's primary Tuesday come Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida, in the next three weeks. Washington's caucuses are Feb. 9 and its primary is Feb. 19.

Material from McClatchy Newspapers is included in this report.