Economy replacing war as top campaign issue

MANCHESTER, N.H. — On Gunstock Mountain last week, not a single voter in a packed ski lodge asked Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton about the Iraq war.

The closest Sen. John McCain came to Iraq during a town-hall meeting in Bedford was a question about U.S. intelligence on Iran.

At a crowded house party for former Sen. John Edwards, only one person asked how he planned to end combat missions and bring the troops home.

Not long ago, the war in Iraq dominated every campaign event and speech. But the war has receded as a campaign topic, giving way to preoccupations closer to home: the price of heating oil, the collapse of the real-estate market and the cost of health care.

"Iraq is fading as an important issue," said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. "It's been declining since the late spring and early summer on both the Republican side and the Democratic side."

Among Democrats in New Hampshire, 57 percent said in June that the Iraq war was the issue most important to them, but by November that had dropped to 41 percent. Among Republicans, 36 percent said in June that they were most concerned about Iraq, and by November that figure was down to 22 percent, according to Smith's state polling.

At the same time, voters have become more concerned about their personal economic security. "It all goes back to the dictum in political science that people tend to vote their pocketbook," said Frank Cohen, a political-science professor at Franklin Pierce College in Rindge, N.H. In Bedford recently, Sheilagh Shiepe told McCain, R-Ariz., that when she picks up her children at school, she often hears other middle-class moms talking about going without food to cover the bills.

"When people can't pay their mortgages, the first thing they do is not buy their food," Shiepe said.

Speaking with reporters aboard his campaign bus, McCain said voters such as Shiepe are focusing more on domestic issues and less on Iraq because violence there has abated since the troop buildup. "It's off the front page," said McCain, an early advocate of the troop buildup. "You don't have stories about 'Everything went smoothly on the highway today.' "

Edwards, D-N.C., said he's not sure why he's been getting fewer questions on Iraq, but he speculated that people may refrain from asking because they know his answer. "I think the people who come to town-hall meetings are a more active group, and a lot of them already know what the nuances are of your position on the war," he said.

The shift in voters' concerns has prompted the candidates to increasingly emphasize fiscal issues. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, for example, likes to give a presentation outlining the long-term economic threats facing the nation from the falling dollar, a persistent trade deficit and increased federal spending.

In contrast, last year voters in New Hampshire swept many Republicans out of office, from members of Congress to county clerks, expressing anger about the war and frustration with President Bush.

"The people of New Hampshire are still concerned about the continuing war and how we're going to get out of the war," said Ray Buckley, chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party.

"But if you don't have enough money at the end of the day to keep your family warm, that suddenly becomes a very dominant issue."