Dems tread lightly on immigration

WASHINGTON — Democratic presidential candidates are likely to sound similar tonight at their Las Vegas debate when they discuss illegal immigration — if they talk much about it at all.

They all pretty much call for tougher border enforcement and providing a path to citizenship, but they've been downplaying the issue for months, even though it's one of the hottest controversies in the land.

Democratic analysts say that's a smart strategy. Republicans counter that Democrats are afraid of the issue, which could split the party's liberal wing and Hispanics from its blue-collar supporters.

Independent analysts aren't sure who's right.

"People are torn. They know they need immigrants [to make the economy hum], but many also fear the browning of America," said Ken Fernandez, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

The major Democratic contenders' debate takes place in a crucial early-voting caucus state where illegal immigrants are a major concern. Yet Democratic campaigns aren't jumping at the chance to highlight immigration. They're more eager to emphasize issues that they think are higher on their voters' agendas, notably health care, education, the war on terrorism and the economy.

Democratic campaigns also are calculating that once the party nominations are decided, probably early next year, their party's detailed, comprehensive approaches to giving illegal immigrants a path to citizenship will look good next to Republicans' demands simply to get ultratough with anyone who's in the country illegally.

"Republicans should be terrified," said Simon Rosenberg, president of the New Democrat Network. "The positions most of their candidates are taking now will make it very difficult for them to win the presidency."

Republicans counter that it's Democrats who should be frightened.

"Look at how all the Republicans, except for John McCain, are talking tough. That's because they've been on the trail and are talking to folks," said Alan Moore, press secretary for Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., whose White House bid is built around his get-tough-with-immigrants proposals.

Democrats are making two political calculations on immigration.

One is that their comprehensive, arguably more tolerant approach will help woo Hispanic voters, who could make up an estimated 10 percent of next year's electorate. They've been straying on the presidential level for the past two elections. President Bush, a former Texas governor, appealed not only to regional pride but also to Hispanics' deep desire for education restructuring, and won about 40 percent of the Latino vote in 2004.

Democrats think the GOP will be fortunate to get half that next year, not only because polls show that much of the Hispanic community is disillusioned with Bush but also because the tough Republican immigration talk is often seen as anti-Hispanic, said Maria Echaveste, a senior adviser to Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.

The other calculation by Democrats is that bringing up immigration can only hurt them at the moment, because it isn't easy to explain comprehensive action during a quick-answer debate.

Republicans could be right: When people think about immigration, most now want an iron fist, not talking points. In Ohio, for instance, a Nov. 6-11 Quinnipiac University poll found that strong majorities favor building a fence along the U.S.-Mexico border, creating national ID cards for all legal residents and refusing driver's licenses and free public education to illegal immigrants.