Something in common on Prop. 1: Both sides' facts are off

As voters start marking their mail-in ballots on Proposition 1, the "Roads & Transit" measure, both sides have produced misleading new radio ads.

• Opponents claim a nonexistent "cost overrun."

News accounts, elected officials and campaign debaters are citing a variety of dollar figures in their attempts to explain the plan.

A new radio ad from the "no" side mentions the different numbers, and then announces: "Evidently, Prop. 1 has had yet another cost overrun, because now they say Prop. 1 will cost $47 billion. Actually, the figure isn't an overrun, but merely one way to view the total payments for projects and finance costs, including inflation. There are no "cost overruns" at this early stage — any potential overruns wouldn't be known until advanced engineering studies or construction bids are submitted, years from now.

To review, here are the other numbers:

Sponsoring agencies say the package is $18 billion in 2006 dollars for rail and road construction, land, trains and buses.

If inflation, short-term financing, overhead and operations are added, the total reaches $38 billion by 2027, when projects are supposed to be done.

The $47 billion includes debt payments after 2027, but no long-term operating costs.

And $157 billion is conjecture by opponents about the total tax dollars that agencies could legally collect by 2057, if costs go completely out of control.

• Proponents distort state treasurer's remarks.

A new ad says: "State Treasurer Michael Murphy calls the opponents' claims about increases in the sales tax and the car-tabs tax 'bogus.' "

Murphy's remark comes from a Seattle Times story Oct. 3, in which he declared his support for Proposition 1, and labeled "bogus" only the opposition campaign's marquee figure of $157 billion.

Tax rates were not part of the article or the interview with Murphy.

The big number was the result of a mathematical exercise by retired Bellevue engineer and light-rail opponent Jim MacIsaac, who estimated how many tax dollars would be collected through 2057 in a worst-case situation — in which huge cost overruns lead Sound Transit to charge the maximum tax rate for 50 years.

Murphy said he didn't expect that scenario, and transit officials have predicted they would reduce tax rates by the late 2030s.

The proponents' ad tries to make the tax rate a nonissue.

But Proposition 1 would indeed double "its part" of the local sales tax, as opponents claim. Rates are currently 4 cents per $10 purchase for Sound Transit, and would increase to a total 10 cents per $10 for transit and roads. And a car-tab increase, $80 per $10,000 in vehicle value, would "double, even triple" the total car tax.

The plan, covering urban Snohomish, King and Pierce counties, is intended to provide 186 miles of road lanes, 50 miles of light rail, several park-and-ride stations, and partial funding for a new six-lane Highway 520 floating bridge.

Mike Lindblom: 206-515-5631 or mlindblom@seattletimes.com