Can Democrats in Congress capitalize on GOP exodus?

WASHINGTON —

For members of Congress, this is the time to get serious about seeking re-election next year or leaving office for something new. So far, only one party is heading for the exits.

While 17 Republicans already have decided to throw in the towel on their Capitol Hill careers, only two Democrats so far are calling it quits — and both of them are seeking higher congressional office. The disparity underscores the different moods prevailing in the two parties: Democrats, still heady from winning control of Congress 2006, are enjoying the fruits of power. Republicans, their party reduced to minority status in the House and Senate, see more allure in retirement or private life.

"I don't like being in the minority," said Rep. Ray LaHood, R-Ill., who was first elected in the 1994 GOP landslide and will retire after this term. "It's not that much fun, and the prospects for the future don't look that good."

The wave of retirements compounds the political challenge facing the GOP in the 2008 congressional elections, because the party is significantly trailing its Democratic counterparts in fundraising. That means Republicans will be defending more House and Senate seats with less money and will be fighting battles in places that otherwise would have been secure.

Additionally, many of the Republicans choosing to retire are older, more pragmatic lawmakers, such as Rep. Ralph Regula of Ohio, moderates like Rep. Deborah Pryce of Ohio and Sen. John Warner of Virginia, and mavericks like Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel. These departures fuel the generational and ideological changes that have pushed the Republican contingent in Congress steadily to the right over the past decade.

Eddie Mahe, a former GOP official, said it is no surprise that many Republicans are thinking about quitting politics at a time when President Bush's popularity is low, Iraq is in turmoil and the U.S. economy might be going soft.

"If I was talking to my favorite brother-in-law and he was thinking about running for Congress, I would say, 'Why would you want to do that now?' " Mahe said. "If anybody's not smart enough to figure that out, I don't want them around, anyway."

Democrats have their own political vulnerabilities: Despite disillusionment with the GOP, many voters are not satisfied with Democratic control of Congress. A recent poll conducted for National Public Radio found that Congress' job-approval rating has slipped to 25 percent, down from 36 percent in April.

Still, against that backdrop, more Republicans than Democrats are abandoning the institution. So far, five Senate Republicans and 12 House Republicans have announced they will retire. No Senate Democrats are retiring, and only two have said they will leave the House — to run for the Senate.

Retirements are crucial to congressional election strategy because, in most cases, it is easier for a party to hold onto a seat when its incumbent runs for re-election than to retain a seat opened by retirement.

That is why Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, has been laboring to persuade his party's incumbents to run for re-election. He is urging at least one — Rep. Jim Ramstad of Minnesota — to reconsider his decision to retire.

But Cole says it is always difficult to dissuade lawmakers who leave for personal reasons. Pryce, for example, said she was retiring from the Ohio seat that she nearly lost in 2006 to spend more time with her daughter, who is just entering kindergarten.

"It's hard to say no to that," Cole said. "But that was one that hurts, because we fully expected her to run."

Cole takes heart in that several retirees, such as Rep. David Hobson of Ohio, come from districts that Republicans will be able to hold with little trouble. But others will give the GOP a fight they might otherwise not have had to wage. Of the 12 seats coming open, eight are ranked as potentially competitive by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report — including five it identifies as tossups.

Republicans will be fighting on that turf with fewer resources: As of the end of August, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had $22.1 million in cash on hand, compared with $1.6 million held by the GOP House committee.

There is a similar imbalance in fundraising for Senate races: As of the end of August, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had $20.6 million in the bank; its Republican counterpart had only $7.1 million.

That financial disadvantage is especially problematic for Republicans, because next year the party must defend 22 of its 49 Senate seats, compared with 12 Senate seats to be defended by Democrats.

For the GOP, the uphill climb to recapture the Senate majority it lost in 2006 has grown steadily steeper, as one veteran senator after another announced his retirement.

Warner cited his advancing age. Hagel said he was abiding by his promise to serve only two terms; so did Sen. Wayne Allard of Colorado. New Mexico Sen. Pete Domenici is leaving because of illness.

Those announcements were a big blow to the GOP, because Democrats had little hope of competing in Virginia, New Mexico and Nebraska against those popular incumbents. They have a good shot at those states now — especially in Virginia, where Republicans are divided over whom to nominate and the leading Democratic candidate, Mark Warner, is a popular former governor.

Republican Sen. Larry Craig of Idaho announced he would resign after his arrest and guilty plea to disorderly conduct in a men's airport bathroom. He since has indicated he intends to serve out his term, to the dismay of some fellow Republicans.

Democrats cannot help but gloat that none of their incumbent senators is retiring, even Sen. Tim Johnson, D-S.D., who is recovering from a brain hemorrhage.

"It's another sign that the enthusiasm and the energy is on the Democratic side this year," said Sen. Charles Schumer of New York, chairman of the party's Senate campaign committee.