Senate races become more complicated for GOP

WASHINGTON — A Senate electoral playing field that already was wide open for 2008 has become considerably more perilous for Republicans with the retirement of Sen. John Warner, R-Va., and the resignation of Sen. Larry Craig, R-Idaho.

Republicans need a net gain of one seat to take back control of the Senate, but they must defend 22 of 34 seats that are up for grabs, and campaign cash is conspicuously lacking. Warner's retirement increased to two the number of open Republican seats, and both — in Virginia and Colorado — are prime targets for Democrats.

With former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey possibly waiting in the wings, Republicans anxiously are watching to see if Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., will retire. Two other GOP seats open for re-election — in Wyoming and possibly Idaho — would be occupied by unelected appointees, John Barrasso and Craig's replacement.

"The state of the playing field looks very good, even in places where we didn't expect it to look good, even in deeply red states," said Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. "Things could change, but if you did a snapshot, we're going to have a good year."

"It's always darkest right before you get clobbered over the head with a pipe wrench. But then it actually does get darker," said a GOP pollster who insisted on anonymity in order to speak candidly.

To be sure, last week's events will not necessarily change the terrain that much, if Republicans have a little luck. Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report, said the only way Idaho's Republican seat would be in jeopardy is if Craig rebuffed Republicans clamoring for his resignation and stood for re-election. Former Rep. Larry LaRocco, a Democrat campaigning hard for the seat, garnered only 40 percent of the vote last year against Republican James Risch in the race to be Idaho's lieutenant governor.

Now, according to congressional Republican aides, Idaho Republican Gov. C.L. "Butch" Otter is leaning toward naming Risch to succeed Craig, who resigned Saturday.

"We're not worried about that state," said Rebecca Fisher, spokeswoman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). "I don't think that expands anything for us."

Virginia would be a different story — if Schumer can coax former Democratic Gov. Mark Warner into the race. Most analysts, even Republicans, believe Warner would be a strong favorite. The Republican field could turn fratricidal if Rep. Tom Davis, a moderate whose political base is in the Northern Virginia suburbs, goes against former Gov. Jim Gilmore, a confrontational conservative.

The conservative Club for Growth, a free-spending political-action committee unafraid to take sides in Republican primary fights, sent out a warning shot Friday, declaring: "Virginia Republicans should take a long look at Davis' 13-year record as one of more economically liberal members of the Republican Conference."

But congressional aides close to Warner say the popular former governor still is deeply torn between a Senate bid and holding out for a possible vice-presidential nomination, a Cabinet post in a Democratic administration or another run for governor. Without Warner, there is no obvious Democratic contender.

Beyond Idaho and Virginia, the field looks barren for Republicans, GOP campaign aides conceded. NRSC fundraising has been weak, and Republicans appear to have only two real Democratic targets next year, Sens. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and Tim Johnson of South Dakota. Johnson's slow recovery from a brain hemorrhage has impeded Republicans from going on the attack.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Wednesday rated the Colorado seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Wayne Allard as a tossup, but the state has been trending Democratic. Anti-war sentiments are turning some voters away from the GOP, imperiling the re-election prospects of Sens. Susan Collins, R-Maine, John Sununu, R-N.H., Norm Coleman, R-Minn., and Gordon Smith, R-Ore.

The Craig scandal is only the latest issue to demoralize the Republican Party, and new wild cards keep springing up, such as an FBI raid on a vacation home of Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, and questions about the role that Sen. Pete Domenici, R-N.M., may have played in the firing of U.S. Attorney David Iglesias in Albuquerque. Democratic surrogates in labor-backed groups have even been attacking Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.

The Cook Report considers those three seats and the Idaho seat "likely Republican," but if the GOP is forced to spend money defending them, it would siphon funds from races where the money would be badly needed. As of June 30, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had $20.4 million on hand, while the National Republican Senatorial Committee had $5.8 million in its bank account.

"If Republicans are investing significant money in Idaho, that means they are losing at least five seats in 2008," Gonzales said. "If Idaho ends up the fire wall, they are in deep trouble."

Fisher said the race for cash is picking up. And she predicted that Republicans will come to the polls in droves if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., secures the Democratic presidential nomination.

Schumer called that "grasping at straws," noting that when similar predictions about Clinton were made in her Senate races in New York, they proved to be untrue.

Republican operatives privately are fretting about an environment that could remain deadly for their party.

"About the only safe Republican Senate seats in '08 are the ones that aren't on the ballot," a GOP operative said. "I don't see even the rosiest scenario where we don't end up losing more seats."