Presidential primaries in December now a possibility

CONCORD, N.H. — South Carolina Republicans today moved their 2008 presidential primary to Jan. 19, triggering a chain reaction among Iowa, New Hampshire and other early voting states that could push the first balloting into December 2007.

South Carolina GOP Chairman Katon Dawson made the announcement with officials from New Hampshire, whom he called allies in protecting the traditional early states' voting order.

"We are here to stand shoulder to shoulder with our friends in New Hampshire to reaffirm the important role that both of our states play in presidential politics," Dawson said.

South Carolina had scheduled its Republican primary for Feb. 2, but at a news conference with New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner, Dawson said the change to Jan. 19 was needed to protect South Carolina's first-primary-in-the-South tradition.

Given the change, Gardner will be forced by state law to move the New Hampshire primary to at least Jan. 12. Iowa then probably would move up its traditional leadoff caucuses, perhaps to as early as mid-December.

"There's nothing I can do or even think about until I know what New Hampshire is going to do. As far as I'm concerned we are going to be No. 1 in the nation. As far as a date, I don't know yet," Ray Hoffmann, the Republican Party chairman in Iowa, said today.

Said Iowa's Democratic Gov. Chet Culver: "Iowa will go first, that is the bottom line."

The primary shift creates major headaches for the national parties determined to impose discipline on the states and the presidential candidates who have struggled to deal with the accelerated schedule and figure out a campaign strategy.

After the rapid-fire early voting in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and possibly Florida, some 20 states are slated to vote on Feb. 5 in what amounts to a national primary day. The nominees could be decided as early as the first week of February, raising the possibility of a nearly 10-month general election campaign.

"This frontloading hurts everybody," said Steve Duprey, a former New Hampshire GOP chairman who is now a top adviser to Sen. John McCain. "The particular difficulty that this late-in-the-game leapfrogging causes is that, in the early states, it's particularly difficult for campaigns to put together a plan that leads to that crescendo at the end."

Duprey said it also will be hard for campaigns to get attention and volunteers in late December "because when you have a choice of going in and phonebanking for two nights or going to your child's holiday recital, the recital is going to win."

Gardner said he has not set the date of the New Hampshire primary and has no plans to do so anytime soon.

"I just don't know," he told The Associated Press Thursday morning. "One thing at a time. This is one more piece of the puzzle."

State law requires him to schedule the primary earlier to protect its status, and it can be any day of the week.

Unlike in South Carolina, state laws in Iowa and New Hampshire require officials there to hold the first caucus and primary in the nation, respectively.

As of Tuesday, Iowa was slated to hold its contest Jan. 14. The Democratic National Committee wants New Hampshire to go on Jan. 22, although Gardner has not said he would cooperate.

In Iowa, Republican Party spokeswoman Mary Tiffany said they are waiting to see what New Hampshire does. "Basically we have until Sept. 4 and until New Hampshire makes a move we're staying put."

Sept. 4 is when the states must certify to the RNC the date and format of their delegate selection process.

Chuck Laudner, executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa, was more pragmatic. Both the Democratic and Republican central committees are scheduled to meet next on Sept. 8

"We'll figure out a date that's best and my prediction is we'll just announce it. It will be fairly quick after that. Each of us have to find 2,000 locations for the caucuses. It's a lot of work to do," he said.

Nevada's GOP caucuses are scheduled for Jan. 19. Democrats inserted the Nevada caucus into the schedule last year in an effort to add racial and ethnic diversity and increase union clout in the early going.

Nevada GOP executive director Zachary Moyle said the party had no immediate plans to change its date.

"We'll wait and see how the dominos fall," Moyle said, adding that he believed a Western contest will draw candidates even if it shares a date with South Carolina.

In May, Florida scheduled its presidential primary for Jan. 29, infuriating South Carolina Republicans and prompting Dawson to maneuver to change the date in concert with Gardner.

While the South Carolina Republicans pushed up their primary, the state Democratic Party said it would stick with Jan. 29, consistent with Democratic National Committee rules.

The primary calendar jockeying is the result of states such as New York and California moving their contests earlier as they seek to play a greater role in choosing the nominees.

States have until Sept. 4 to tell the Republican National Committee the date and format of their nominating contests. That's when the calendar becomes official under national party rules.

By Dec. 31, RNC Chairman Mike Duncan must formally invite states to the nominating convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul next summer and declare how many delegates each state gets.

Any state that moves its primary or caucus earlier than Feb. 5 before that "call to convention" risks being penalized half its delegates under RNC guidelines set during the last presidential election. If a state changes its nominating date after the "call to convention," the RNC will dock it 90 percent of its delegates.