First presidential vote could come in '07

WASHINGTON — South Carolina's Republican Party will move its presidential primary forward to Jan. 19, sources said Wednesday, a decision almost certain to spark a cascade of calendar changes that could push the start of voting to New Year's Day or even before Christmas.

The move, set to be announced today, is likely to shift the New Hampshire primary and Iowa caucuses at least into early January, and other states are actively angling to stake out spots earlier in the process. The maneuvering has injected a new note of uncertainty into what is already the earliest-starting presidential campaign in history, and top strategists for the presidential candidates said it would force them to overhaul their carefully crafted campaign plans.

Katon Dawson, who heads the South Carolina GOP, made the shift in order to retain the distinction of holding the "first in the South" presidential-primary balloting. Dawson's move was sparked by the Florida Legislature's earlier decision to upstage South Carolina by moving its primary to Jan. 29. South Carolina had been scheduled to vote Feb. 2.

Under some scenarios, the decision could lead Iowa to hold its caucuses in mid-December, creating an unprecedented situation in which convention delegates are selected in the calendar year before a presidential election.

The move is certain to trigger action by New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner, who is compelled by state law to set the date of his state's primary at least a week before any other. That could push New Hampshire's primary, currently scheduled for Jan. 22, to Tuesday, Jan. 8.

In Iowa, state law requires presidential-nominating caucuses to be held at least eight days before any other voting takes place.

"We understand that us naming the date has consequences for New Hampshire. We respect that," Dawson said Wednesday as he boarded a plane to New Hampshire, where he plans to make the announcement alongside Gardner.

But he added: "We have an historic place in presidential politics. We've been on record for two years that we will be first in the South."

Gardner, in an interview Wednesday, vowed New Hampshire would "preserve our tradition" of holding the first presidential primary in the nation but said he did not expect to make an announcement today about a primary date.

"I am bound by our state law and I will follow the state law," he said. "This moving up has been a process that has just continued and continued and continued."

The calendar changes are infuriating senior strategists for presidential candidates in both parties, who say it is forcing them to plot a path to the nomination through quicksand. The uncertainty is holding up decisions about where to campaign and devote resources.

"If you're facing a moving chessboard, it's pretty difficult to know where to make your first move," said Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University. "Imagine playing chess if the board keeps changing."

Lichtman said the earlier voting could create the longest-ever general election if the two party nominees are largely decided by mid-January. That would leave almost 10 months for the two candidates, and any third-party entrant, to battle for the presidency before the November elections in 2008.

"We could have the general election starting at a time when traditionally the nominees hadn't been close to being selected," he said. The primary campaign, he added, has so far done "anything but inspire the voters. I doubt if a 10-month general-election campaign will do any better."

The timing of Dawson's decision was prompted in part by a Sept. 4 deadline for states to notify the Republican National Committee about their primary plans or risk losing some of their delegates to the national convention in Minneapolis next year.

South Carolina's Democratic primary, which is scheduled to take place Jan. 29, is not affected by the decision. But the New Hampshire and Iowa moves that follow would apply to the Democratic and Republican contests in those states.

The calendar has been shifting despite warnings from officials of the two national party committees, who have threatened to punish state parties that hold their voting earlier.

The RNC can block half of a state's delegates to the national convention if the state defies the party's wishes. The Democratic National Committee has threatened to disqualify delegates pledged to candidates who campaign in states where it has not OK'd early voting.

Those threats have had little impact on state leaders, who doubt the parties would follow through on those threats.

Florida's Legislature moved its primary to Jan. 29 to attract both parties' candidates in advance of Feb. 5, when more than 20 states including California and New York are scheduled to vote on a day dubbed "Tsunami Tuesday."