No agreement yet in sight on immigration

WASHINGTON -- The Senate launches a major debate on immigration this week, with shaky prospects for a comprehensive overhaul that large numbers of Democrats and Republicans can support.

One of the biggest sticking points is how the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants already living here would be treated. Republican senators are insisting on tougher rules than in last year's Senate bill for illegal immigrants to achieve legal status -- longer waits, bigger fines and a trip home to the country of origin.

But a new issue has emerged that is equally contentious. The Bush administration has proposed managing the future flow of legal immigration by stressing job skills and education over family ties. Immigrant groups worry that will sharply curtail the ability to bring in close relatives.

The political dynamic on immigration has changed dramatically since last year, when a bipartisan Senate bill died because House GOP leaders refused to consider it.

Backers of immigration change got a boost when Democrats took over Congress and President Bush pushed harder for a bipartisan deal in closed-door negotiations. But at the same time, Senate Republicans such as John McCain and Sam Brownback have backed away from last year's bill.

Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., has set a Wednesday deadline for Senate and Bush administration negotiators to come up with a new bill. If they don't, Reid will begin what could be a two-week debate using the Senate bill that passed one year ago as a "placeholder."

Frank Sharry, executive director of the National Immigration Forum, said he was hopeful for a deal but that big obstacles remain. The negotiators "aren't close, but they are serious," Sharry said Friday. "It's hard to find a sweet spot for a bill that actually works that can also pass."

House leaders are waiting for the Senate to act. Rep. Zoe Lofgren, D-Calif., has chaired a series of hearings on the impact of immigration but said she will hold off on legislation. Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said she will bring up a bill when it attracts support from a significant number of GOP House members.

Under one White House proposal, illegal immigrants would have to wait at least eight years to get on the path to legal residency while the visa backlog for those waiting in line is cleared up. During that time, illegal immigrants would have conditional status and not have to worry about deportation but would have to return to their home country at some point.

A leader of one Latino organization said that was unworkable and an unreasonable burden. "Having to return home is out of the question," said Cecilia Munoz, vice president of the National Council of La Raza.

Democratic senators said they will try to block the "return-home" rule. But the provision that has attracted the most vocal opposition from immigration advocates is a Bush plan to revamp future immigration with a system to reward education and job skills. Currently, family members or employers are needed to sponsor legal immigrants.

Another provision in dispute is the guest-worker program. Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., the leading negotiator for Senate Republicans, wants a temporary program. Workers would have to return to their home country after three years and could not bring family members unless their incomes exceeded 150 percent of the poverty level and they had health insurance.

Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., and others argue that guest workers who put down roots and pay taxes should be allowed to seek permanent status They say a rigid three-year program would replicate troubled European systems of imported workers who have no hope of staying.

"No union is going to support a temporary-worker program unless they can apply for permanent residency," said Tom Snyder, national political director of Unite Here, a union of 450,000 workers in apparel and service industries.

One provision that has widespread support, but hasn't received much attention, is an increase in H1-B visas and green cards for tech and other highly skilled workers. Compete America, a coalition of 125 companies and research institutions, wants Congress to almost double H1-B visas from 65,000 to 115,000 a year.

Participants in the negotiations were reluctant to predict whether 60 senators -- the total needed to avoid a filibuster -- can agree on a comprehensive bill in the next two weeks -- or this year -- with so many contentious issues.

"I think we've negotiated to the point that you can see the promised land," Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said. "The question is, will we all become Moses and see the promised land but never get there?"