Big buildup ups the ante for "new way" in Iraq

WASHINGTON — President Bush has spent weeks figuring out a new war plan in Iraq. All the while, the public's expectations have been headed in one direction: up.

Anticipation is high because people are weary of war and because of the way Bush has gone about deciding his next move.

Saddled with a reputation for stubbornness, he has made a visible effort to seek advice: from the military, diplomats, academics, retired generals, a special study commission, Iraqi officials, Republican leaders, even Democrats he once ridiculed.

Tuesday, he went to his ranch in Crawford, Texas, to do more thinking and listening. Bush will host a National Security Council meeting at the ranch Thursday.

By the time he announces his Iraq plan in January, roughly two months will have passed since a humbling election for Republicans brought a promise of a "new way forward."

"He has built up expectations," said David Gergen, a former White House adviser in the administrations of presidents Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Clinton. "People are saying, 'OK, if you've spent all this time and effort on it, you better have a pretty darn good plan.' "

The supposed goal of that plan will be to get Iraq on a path to govern itself and help the United States fight terrorism. Bush is also out to win back those who want to know the war has an end in sight.

Recent history shows the trouble with high expectations.

The Iraq Study Group, a bipartisan commission of Washington elders, this month offered Bush a comprehensive plan to change course. It was so highly anticipated that when it was not embraced by the White House as a whole, it seemed to fade from view.

Bush now faces his own test of great expectations, largely of his own doing. He promised a new approach, yet even his new defense secretary, Robert Gates, acknowledged "there are no new ideas in Iraq."

Indeed, some of the main ideas under consideration — sending in more troops, embedding more U.S. advisers in Iraqi units, engaging in more aggressive diplomacy — aren't novel. And if Bush comes up with a fresh approach after nearly four years of war, that will raise the question of why he hadn't thought of it before.

Even with that seemingly no-win set of expectations, the president has room to succeed, said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania.

"It doesn't have to be new. It has to be new for him," said Jamieson, who specializes in presidential rhetoric.

Bush and his defense team set the expectations, assuring that Iraq had stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction and promising that U.S. troops would be viewed as liberators. Now the president can reset the expectations.

What people want is to hear Bush explain a clear route to an honorable outcome, one in which it is clear the war left Iraq and the United States better off, Jamieson said.

"There are times when a country roots for a leader. I think that's what happening with this," Jamieson said. "A lot of people who voted for Democrats want the president to succeed. I think he has some advantage coming in, because the public so desperately wants success."

Desperate — and skeptical.

Bush's approval for handling the situation in Iraq was at 27 percent in an AP-Ipsos poll this month, his lowest approval level on Iraq in that poll. Only one-third of those polled said Iraq would end up as a stable, democratic nation.

"I think the American people understand this war perhaps better than anybody gives them credit for," said Leon Panetta, who was President Clinton's chief of staff and a member of the Iraq Study Group.

"If they believe that the president has approached this with what he calls 'fresh eyes' — if he takes a comprehensive approach — then they're going to give him some room."

Bush used a year-end news conference last week to help frame the expectations.

He promised to work with Democrats and be flexible about war tactics. But his only prediction for 2007 in Iraq was: "It's going to require difficult choices and additional sacrifices, because the enemy is merciless and violent."

The president also braced the nation to think long-term. His goals aren't changing. He talks of the war on terrorism as the calling of a generation, one that "is going to require a sustained commitment from the American people."

That's a world away for those looking for a firm date for U.S. troops to come home.

Gergen, the former White House adviser, said it's unrealistic to expect Bush to come up with a plan so dazzling it will rally the country. But it may extend the nation's patience.

"That has to be his goal, from a political perspective," Gergen said. "For a president, buying time to try something new is often the most important thing you can do in a crisis."

The White House puts some blame on the media for rising expectations. Spokesman Tony Snow, who spends every briefing fending off requests for details about Bush's plan, told reporters this week to "take a deep, cleansing breath."

Asked whether the president felt a sense of urgency to announce his strategy sooner, rather than later, given the rising death toll in Iraq, White House deputy press secretary Scott Stanzel said Tuesday: "He's wanting to make sure that we give all consideration to all the options. ... Coalition forces in Iraq are continuing to take the fight to the enemy, and the president will announce a new way forward when he's comfortable announcing that."