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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 - Page updated at 10:06 AM

Election 2005

Shorter monorail financing plan would shave $6.5 billion in debt

Seattle Times staff reporter

The Seattle Monorail Project (SMP) yesterday issued a new finance proposal designed to pay for a shortened line in less than four decades.

With a fifth monorail vote Nov. 8, three weeks remain for backers to convince the public that the new $1.7 billion, 10-mile route from Interbay to West Seattle's Alaska Junction is a good deal.

With interest costs included, the shorter route would cost up to $4.9 billion over 38 years. That's $6.5 billion less than an earlier $11.4 billion package, announced in June, that included some high-interest "junk" bonds.

"There's no magic to it. We reduced the cost of the project, and therefore you need less money and less debt service to build," board member Paul Toliver said at a meeting last night.

Three years ago, a thin majority of voters approved new car-tab taxes for a longer 14-mile, 19-station line that included three stops in Ballard. But a revenue shortage and rising costs have nearly doomed the monorail, and the agency drew sharp criticism this summer for a finance plan that required at least half a century of taxes for a $2.1 billion line.

Monorail board members dropped that proposal. They later capitulated to a revote after city leaders yanked a street-use agreement for monorail construction.

Yesterday, the agency said it could pay for the first 10 miles within 31 years, if tax revenue grows at the 6.1 percent annual rate its economists predict. City Finance Director Dwight Dively and Sound Transit's forecaster, Dick Conway, have suggested 5 percent or less. At 5 percent, SMP thinks the debt would be paid in 38 years.

The 10-mile monorail package


The Seattle Monorail Project yesterday released figures for a cheaper, shorter route from West Dravus Street in Interbay to Alaska Junction in West Seattle. It replaces a longer 14-mile plan voters approved in 2002. Some highlights:

Twelve stations: A 13th stop at Madison Street would be added if SMP can acquire federally owned land there.

A $1.7 billion price: With almost four miles of track removed, including a bridge to Ballard, the project is cheaper than the earlier $2.1 billion to $2.2 billion for 14 miles and 16 stations.

Car-tab taxes for 31 to 38 years: SMP defends an earlier prediction that collections from its car-tab tax will grow 6.1 percent per year, which would pay for the shorter line in 31 years. Outside economists and the city favor a more cautious rate of 5 percent, which SMP says would mean a 38-year payoff. A June plan for the longer line required 50 years or longer.

More-frequent service: Trains would arrive every six minutes apart downtown — two minutes faster than under the plan released in June.

Single-tracked West Seattle Bridge: SMP is still proposing to have trains coming and going from downtown take turns on one rail. The agency and prospective builders have discussed a redesign that would allow a second track to be added someday if the bridge becomes a bottleneck. Dual tracks would cost about twice the current $32 million for planting a single track on the existing high-level bridge.

Source: Seattle Monorail Project

John Haley, the SMP's interim executive director, said the tracks would still have to withstand the most-severe earthquake expected, even though SMP could have saved $50 million to $60 million by easing the standard, he said.

The route is still envisioned to wind through Seattle Center grounds, continue on Fifth Avenue through Belltown, then shift to Second Avenue near the Pike Place Market.

Board member Cleve Stockmeyer had suggested saving perhaps $80 million by skipping the Center and going straight down Second.

At this point, "It would be a shame to start with a clean sheet of paper" because a deal with builders is nearly "ready to go," Haley said. "If voters do not approve the project and the agency goes away, what's the alternative?"

Ben Porter, a transit economist and monorail skeptic, called the latest figures "a stronger plan" but still too optimistic.

The finance plan is not required under next month's Proposition 1, which would give the agency broad authority to shorten, extend or lengthen the route, subject to city review.

The agency did not release detailed cash-flow information last night.

Opponent Henry Aronson called Proposition 1 a "blank check" for an agency that withheld news of a $300 million cost increase from the public a year ago.

Stockmeyer has said a final plan would have to win city permit approval. "In effect, the City Council is the monorail board," he said.

Mike Lindblom: 206-515-5631 or mlindblom@seattletimes.com

Copyright © 2005 The Seattle Times Company


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