Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich warned fellow Republicans yesterday not to ignore the implications of the party's narrow victory in Tuesday's special election in Ohio, saying the public mood heading into next year's midterm elections appears to helping Democrats and hurting Republicans.
"It should serve as a wake-up call to Republicans, and I certainly take it very seriously, in analyzing how the public mood evidences itself," Gingrich said. "Who is willing to show up and vote is different than who answers a public opinion poll. Clearly, there's a pretty strong signal for Republicans thinking about 2006 that they need to do some very serious planning and not just assume that everything is going to be OK."
Gingrich's reaction came after Democrat Paul Hackett, an Iraq war veteran and vocal critic of President Bush's Iraq policy, came within 4,000 votes of upsetting Republican Jean Schmidt in the solidly Republican 2nd Congressional District in southwestern Ohio.
Schmidt and Hackett vied to fill a vacancy created when GOP Rep. Rob Portman resigned to become U.S. special trade representative.
Republican apathy, dissatisfaction with Bush and congressional Republicans and Hackett's energetic, anti-Iraq campaign all may have contributed to keep the race closer than expected, according to strategists in both parties.
Carl Forti, National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman, acknowledged the outcome fell far short of the party's desire, as expressed by Forti over the weekend, to "bury" Hackett in retaliation for attacking Bush. "We did not" bury Hackett, he said. "But it was a victory nonetheless."
GOP officials in Washington said the race carried no significant implications for the 2006 elections. They noted that special elections are often poor predictors of election trends. Jason Mauk, political director for the Ohio Republican Party, said, "There does seem to be a sour mood among the electorate at both the state and national level."
Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin said the GOP should be nervous about next year's elections, given the gap between Bush's support last November and Schmidt's on Tuesday.
"What happened in Ohio is very consistent with what we're seeing around the country," he said.
Gingrich, architect of the 1994 GOP takeover of Congress, cited evidence that voter unrest is fueling Democratic hopes.
"There is more energy today on the anti-Iraq, anti-gas price, anti-changing Social Security and I think anti-Washington (side)," he said. "I think the combination of those four are all redounding to weaken Republicans and help Democrats. ... I don't think this is time to panic, but I think it's time to think. If we don't think now, then next September [2006], people will panic when it's too late."