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Friday, July 8, 2005 - Page updated at 12:00 AM

Don't expect Brits to quit Iraq now, experts say

The Dallas Morning News

WASHINGTON — After deadly train bombings in Madrid last year, the Spanish government pulled its troops from Iraq.

Don't expect a similar reaction in Great Britain.

In this case, analysts said, the blasts may have the opposite effect, dampening British public opposition to the Iraq war and drawing British citizens closer to their longtime allies in the United States and on the European continent. It also may strengthen President Bush's hand with Iraq and the overall war on terrorism.

"There's no chance you'll see a reaction in Britain similar to what happened in Spain," said Charles Kupchan, international-relations specialist at Georgetown University in Washington. "This strengthens [Prime Minister Tony] Blair, and, by analogy, Bush."

Bush, speaking from the Group of Eight summit in Scotland, said: "We will not yield to these people."

Blair, who lost domestic political support over the Iraq invasion, said just after the attacks: "Whatever they do, it is our determination that they will never succeed in destroying what we hold dear in this country and in other civilized nations throughout the world."

Several analysts saw the attacks in London as another attempt to isolate the United States from Western allies, much like the 2004 attack in Madrid. A group claiming responsibility for yesterday's carnage cited British support for military action in Afghanistan and Iraq.

On a Web site frequented by Islamic militants, the group went further. It warned two other U.S. allies in Iraq — Italy and Denmark — that if they did not withdraw their forces from Iraq and Afghanistan, they would face comparable attacks.

Britain is the most important U.S. ally. Its 8,500 troops in southern Iraq represent the only significant contingent of non-U.S. military forces in the country; it has an additional 1,000 troops in Afghanistan.

Analysts pointed out that the Madrid bombings, in which 191 died, preceded Spanish elections and that voters turned out the government there because of its response to that attack, as opposed to Iraq. The Spanish government at first indicated the Basque separatist group ETA, and not jihadists, was to blame, an attempt at misdirection that was transparent to voters.

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Blair, meanwhile, won re-election in May, and British voters will likely rally around him now, even those who object to his support of the Iraq war.

"It will reinforce the tendency of the western world to cooperate more on anti-terrorism activities," said Walter Russell Mead, author of "Power, Terror, Peace, and War: America's Grand Strategy in a World at Risk."

As for Bush, Mead said: "Anything that makes people afraid probably enhances Bush's position."

There are indications that anti-war activists, at least in Europe, will redouble their objections to Iraq in response to the attacks.

George Galloway, an outspoken Blair critic whose victory in the May parliamentary elections made him a leader of Britain's anti-war left, said yesterday that he and supporters had warned "that the attacks on Afghanistan and Iraq would increase the threat of terrorist attack in Britain."

"Tragically, Londoners have now paid the price of the government ignoring such warnings."

Kupchan, the international-relations expert, predicted those would be minority views, because the bombings "make clear that all Western capitals are vulnerable to terror attacks."

In the United States, meanwhile, opponents of the Iraq war stressed solidarity against terrorism.

"The actions of cowards against innocent people will not prevail," said House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

Information from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch is included in this report.

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