Kids, cookies outpick polls

By Katharine Goodloe
The Dallas Morning News

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WASHINGTON — Several of the more offbeat political prognosticators did a better job picking a presidential winner than early exit polls did. A children's survey and a cookie contest, coffee cups and Halloween masks clearly pointed to a second term for President Bush. A roundup:

The young vote

Kids say the darnedest things — especially when it comes to picking a president. Two kid-friendly polls went in opposite directions this year. Nickelodeon viewers gave John Kerry a 57 percent victory. But Weekly Reader — which has accurately predicted the winner of every presidential race since 1956 — was right, with more than 60 percent in its K-12 poll going to Bush.

Southern strategy

If Democrats want a chance at winning the traditionally Republican South, they'd better be homegrown. The only three to reach the White House in the past 40 years were Lyndon B. Johnson of Texas, Jimmy Carter of Georgia and Bill Clinton of Arkansas. Bush, a former Texas governor, pressed his home-field advantage, painting his opponent as an elite Massachusetts liberal and winning every Southern state.

Cast a cookie

Family Circle readers kept their perfect record at picking a president, overwhelmingly choosing first lady Laura Bush's oatmeal chocolate-chip cookies over Teresa Heinz Kerry's pumpkin-spice recipe in the magazine's fourth annual bakeoff. But Heinz Kerry recently said a staffer submitted the recipe without her approval. Tough cookies for the Democrats? Possibly.

Football

For decades, a victory for the Washington Redskins in their last home game before the election translated to a corresponding victory for the presidential incumbent. But the Redskins went down to the Green Bay Packers this year, 28-14.

A cup of average Joe
 
7-Eleven customers voted early in the morning — and often — this election season, as the stores tracked sales of Bush and Kerry coffee cups during an October promotion. Final results announced by the store closely tracked the actual vote, giving Bush a 51.08 percent to Kerry's 48.92. But the contest was wrong on one key state — Kerry cups were ahead in Ohio, whose 20 electoral votes went to Bush, ultimately deciding the election.

Spooky

Halloween popularity can be a treat for presidential candidates. Since 1980, the candidate with the best-selling Halloween mask has taken the election, according to BuyCostumes.com. This year was no exception, with 53 percent of buyers opting for a plastic mask of Bush and 47 percent posing as Kerry, the site said.

Last polls

Traditionally, an incumbent president doesn't earn more votes than the last polls taken before Election Day. In this case, Bush beat those odds, drawing 51 percent of the vote, while most of the last polls had him at 50 percent.

Trading up

At the Iowa Electronic Market, traders predicted that Bush would take 50.45 percent of the popular vote. He actually received 51.55 percent, giving traders a 1.1-point difference — a tad more accurate than their historical average of predicting the vote within 1.37 percentage points. A second market aimed at guessing the margin between the two candidates also hit the mark — giving them nearly a 50-50 split.

Standing tall

Taller candidates almost always win, according to the presidential height index. But the strategy backfired this year as Bush — who is 5 feet 11 inches by some reports and 6 feet by others — bested 6-foot-4 Kerry.

A better burger?

The best way to a man's heart might be through his stomach, but Mr. Dooley's Boston Tavern discovered that's not the most accurate indicator of his political views. In the restaurant's burger ballot, 295 customers opted for a Bush beefsteak while 704 chose Kerry's Black Angus burger.

Although Kerry's home-field advantage could have skewed the numbers, general manager John Fitzgerald said he wasn't sure whether customers based choices on actual appetites or political ones. "But it was a fun way to run the election in here," he said.