Gregoire has slim lead over Rossi, new media poll shows

By David Ammons
The Associated Press

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Gregoire, a three-term attorney general, had 49 percent to Rossi's 43 percent, with the rest undecided. She enjoys strong support from women voters, populous King County and the over-35 crowd.

The poll of 406 registered voters was conducted Sept. 17-20 by Ipsos-Public Affairs and commissioned by The Columbian of Vancouver, The Herald of Everett and The News Tribune in Tacoma. Margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Gregoire, the state's first female attorney general and aspiring to become only the second woman governor in state history, benefits from a gender gap, the poll indicated. Among women, Gregoire was picked by 53 percent and Rossi by 38 percent. Men narrowly picked Rossi.

Rossi led in the 18-to-34 age group, 52 percent to 40 percent, but Gregoire had the edge in all other age categories. She also had the advantage in both major household income groups, under $50,000 a year and over that level.

Gregoire had a big advantage among women with a college degree — 66 percent to 29 percent.

"This is Gregoire's greatest area of strength, well-educated women," said pollster Thom Riehle, president of Ipsos-Public Affairs in Washington, D.C. "Those are huge numbers for her."

Rossi has a lead among men with some or no college education, but Gregoire takes the male voters with a college degree. The two candidates tie for support among women with some or no college.

Gregoire, an Olympia resident, whips Rossi in his home county, King, 67 percent to 29 percent, but he has a narrow lead among urban Puget Sound counties and the rest of Western Washington. Rossi has a lead in Eastern Washington, but it's no runaway: 50 percent versus 44 percent for Gregoire. Gregoire went to law school in Spokane and worked for the Eastern Washington office of the attorney general for years.

Rossi had a big lead among self-identified gun owners, weekly churchgoers, evangelical Christians and veteran households.

Gregoire's overall support is "one point away from the magic number of 50," said her campaign spokesman Morton Brilliant. "But we'll take nothing for granted. We have a healthy respect for the political talents and tactics and abilities of Dino Rossi.
 
"Dino Rossi is a good salesman, a good politician ... and Rossi has the biggest ally in the land, the Bush-Cheney team."

Rossi spokeswoman Janelle Guthrie said Rossi has made progress in each succeeding poll she's seen. Gregoire is well known from her previous campaigns and voters are still learning about Rossi, she said.

"We believe that the more voters know Dino and have a chance to compare the two candidates, the more they will trend toward Dino," she said in an interview.

Last week, the campaign released a poll by Republican pollster Bob Moore that showed the race virtually tied, with Gregoire at 44 percent and Rossi at 41 percent.

Independent pollster Stuart Elway on Wednesday published a post-primary poll that had Gregoire ahead 49 percent to 38 percent, with the rest undecided. He interviewed 405 registered voters Sept. 17-19. Margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points. Elway also showed Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry ahead of President Bush 52 percent to 38 percent and Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., far ahead of Republican challenger George Nethercutt, 57 percent to 37 percent.

In the Ipsos poll, 46 percent said they would vote for Gregoire and 3 percent were leaning toward her, while 41 percent said they would vote for Rossi and 2 percent were leaning his way.

The sample included 50 percent who identified themselves as Democratic and 41 percent who called themselves Republicans.

Ipsos does polling for The Associated Press in the United States and internationally.

Washington state hasn't voted Republican for governor since John Spellman's victory in the 1980 GOP landslide. Gregoire has been viewed as the front-runner since she jumped into the race last summer when Democratic Gov. Gary Locke announced he wouldn't seek a third term.

Gregoire trounced King County Executive Ron Sims in the Democratic primary, 67 percent to 29 percent as of Wednesday's latest tally. Rossi, the former state Senate budget chairman from Sammamish and a commercial real estate broker, dispatched two little-known GOP competitors, nailing down 85 percent of the total Republican vote.

Gregoire told the AP last week that she's cautiously optimistic about winning, but predicted a tight, hotly contested race.