Democratic hopefuls pay state little notice

By David Postman
Seattle Times chief political reporter

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Nine candidates are battling for the Democratic presidential nomination and the chance to face President Bush next year.

But in Washington state, it's a much-reduced contest. Three months before the state's Democratic caucus, just three candidates — former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich — are mounting visible campaigns here.

The campaigns are identifying supporters, explaining the Byzantine caucus process to them, and then convincing them to show up at strangers' houses Feb. 7 to voice support for their candidates.

State party officials say this could be the biggest turnout ever in a Democratic presidential caucus here. The most that have turned out in the past were 100,000 or so in a hard-fought nomination in 1984, said Jeff Smith, the party's former executive director who is heading the effort to find locations for the caucuses. He thinks the crowded race this time could bring even more people out.

Candidates' state campaign headquarters Howard Dean: 228 Ninth Ave. N., Seattle, 206-587-7291 John Kerry: Occidental Mall, 316 Occidental Ave., third floor, Seattle, 206-839-8713. Kerry also has offices in Spokane, Vancouver and Mount Vernon. Dennis Kucinich: 4500 Ninth Ave. N.E. Suite 300 #11, Seattle, 206-633-6068 Carol Moseley Braun, Wesley Clark, John Edwards, Dick Gephardt, Joe Lieberman and Al Sharpton do not have campaign offices in the state.

But the race here is only partially about capturing the state's 95 delegates. Campaign workers talk more about how their candidates' showing in Washington will be viewed by the national media and political observers than whether they win the most delegates.

For a relatively small state like Washington, presidential nominating politics is a game of expectations and perception. For example, Dean has drawn far bigger crowds and raised far more money from Washington than his opponents. Anything other than an outright win here would look like a stumble.

For others who may do poorly in earlier primaries and caucuses, even a strong second place could show momentum needed to stay in the race.

Dean off to fast start

In early assessments, Dean is considered the front-runner. The state's liberal leanings make Washington a comfortable fit for Dean and the anti-war platform that brought him to prominence in the Democratic campaign.

"If that is the expectation, then certainly we want to show that that is in fact the case," said Betty Means, Dean's campaign director in Washington.

Dean has one full-time staffer and one half-time staffer, a massive list of volunteers and an expansive suite of offices in South Lake Union.

Kucinich, by contrast, is operating solely with volunteers out of a tiny University District office. But the state has been one of the most lucrative places for Kucinich to raise money. He's visited here four times as a candidate, including meeting with striking hotel workers, talking to a Green Party meeting, and accepting the endorsement of a longshoremen's union.

"It's a good state with us," said David Swanson, Kucinich's national press secretary. "It's a state with a long labor tradition, a long activist tradition, a lot of support for peace."

Democrats' political calendar The 2004 calendar of Democratic presidential contests, according to the plans that states have given to the Democratic National Committee. Jan. 19: Iowa caucuses Jan. 27: New Hampshire primary Feb. 3: Primaries in Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, Oklahoma and South Carolina; New Mexico caucuses. Feb. 7: Michigan caucuses, Washington state caucus Feb. 8: Maine caucuses Feb. 10: Tennessee and Virginia primaries Feb. 14: Nevada caucuses Feb. 17: Wisconsin primary Feb. 24: Idaho caucuses Feb. 27: Utah primary March 2: Primaries in California, Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont; caucuses in Hawaii, Minnesota and North Dakota; American Samoa caucuses/convention March 6: District of Columbia caucuses March 9: Primaries in Florida, Louisiana and Mississippi; Texas primary/caucus March 13: Kansas caucuses March 16: Illinois primary March 20: Guam caucus/convention April 3: Virgin Islands caucus April 4: Puerto Rico caucus April 13: Colorado caucus April 24: Alaska caucus April 27: Pennsylvania primary May 4: Primaries in Indiana and North Carolina May 11: Primaries in Nebraska and West Virginia May 18: Primaries in Arkansas, Kentucky and Oregon June 1: Primaries in Alabama, Montana, New Jersey and South Dakota Source: Democratic National Committee

Kerry is mounting the most extensive professional operation. There are seven full-time paid staffers in the state with offices in Seattle, Spokane, Vancouver and Mount Vernon. Campaign spokesman David Wade said Kerry is trying to reach Democrats sometimes overlooked by presidential campaigns here.

"Washington could be the perfect storm for the Kerry campaign, with huge numbers of people who care about the environment, an enormous veterans' population, and a tradition of electing leaders who understand foreign policy and national security," he said.

Kerry has made one visit to the state this year, as keynote speaker to the state party's biggest event of the year.

Former Gen. Wesley Clark has Washington on his "short list," but has yet to commit resources here, according to Kevin Price, who ran the early effort in Washington to draft Clark into the race.

Local supporters of Clark delivered to the candidate's Little Rock, Ark., headquarters a 13-page pitch to make Washington state a campaign priority for the general. Supporters say Clark shouldn't be scared away by the fact that Dean is the favorite.

"That's another part of the sales pitch," said Price, a University of Washington political science professor. "Given the perception of Washington as solidly Dean country, we can win here even if we don't deliver as many delegates at that point as the Dean people do."

More to come?

Others may still organize here if they decide a win in the Feb. 7 caucuses is important.

"Part of that will be who the national press anoints as having momentum, but also who has the financial capacity to put organizers on the ground," said Gina Glantz. Glantz, who managed the 2000 presidential campaign of former Democratic New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley, now coordinates presidential political activities for the Service Employees International Union.

As a bridge between the January campaign contests in Iowa and New Hampshire and later primaries in the bigger states, Washington could also prove useful to a campaign struggling for a strong start.

"The theory amongst all the people who think they can't do well in Iowa and New Hampshire is there's another state where they can kick-start themselves as the alternative," Glantz said.

For Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, that could be Arizona or Oklahoma. Both states hold primaries Feb. 3.

Lieberman continues to raise money locally but has kept a low profile. He has made four visits this year. But those usually have not included public events. The two most recent visits were not announced to the media.

Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt can be expected to do well in Iowa and in his home state. He has not visited Washington state as a presidential candidate.

North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is likely to focus on the South after the initial push in Iowa and New Hampshire. Edwards has a paid field director in Washington state and has visited three times this year.

Improving grounds

Candidates have bet on Washington before to turn around their prospects. None more so than Bradley in 2000, when the former senator was running for the Democratic presidential nomination against Vice President Al Gore.

Bradley was interested in capturing the state's primary.

But this year, the scheduled March primary is likely to be eliminated when the Legislature meets in special session next month.

The primary has never been very popular with Washington voters. They didn't like having to identify themselves by political party to get a ballot in the election. Turnout has been low and the political parties have been reluctant to use the results to apportion delegates.

This year, the Democratic Party said it wouldn't use the results to award delegates, leading the governor and lawmakers to say it should be killed to save money.

Bradley's move in 2000 confounded pundits and political observers.

Gore was the obvious front-runner in the Democratic nomination fight. But in New Hampshire, Bradley came within five percentage points of beating Gore.

But the strong showing attracted little attention. The media was more focused on the battle between Arizona Sen. John McCain and Bush, then governor of Texas.

"We just couldn't break through. The media decided the contest was over," said Glantz. "We were looking for a place to plant a flag to demonstrate renewed interest and momentum."

Washington emerged as the best bet because it was one of the few things happening between New Hampshire and Super Tuesday, when several states held primaries.

So Bradley spent most of a solid week campaigning in a state no one outside of here thought was essential to the nomination fight.

"It was a calculated decision to try to make it important," said Ed Turlington, who served as Bradley's deputy campaign manager. He is now general chairman of Edwards' campaign.

"We diverted resources to try to make a stand," he said.

It didn't work. Bradley was soundly defeated by Gore here. Nine days later, he dropped out of the race.

Glantz and Turlington, though, say they still think it was the right decision to try to elevate Washington's standing.

"If Bill had won, or even made a strong showing, it at least would have put the Democratic race back on the map," Turlington said.

David Postman: 360-943-9882

Copyright © 2003 The Seattle Times Company