Impressive totals expected this fall for chinook return

If the projected return of 760,600 fall chinook comes anywhere close, it could equate to some memorable fishing off the coast and in the Columbia River during the late summer and fall.

"It's pretty impressive, and would be the fifth largest run going back to at least 1948," said Joe Hymer, a state Fish and Wildlife biologist.

Last year's ocean fishery returned 648,600, with a forecast of 652,700.

Fall chinook are broken down into six stocks, and there's just about nothing that looks bad on the computer-generated predictions.

The upriver bright chinook stock forecast is 398,200 (310,800 was forecast last year and actual return was 324,900), and is the second largest return since record keeping began in 1964.

"That is a lot of upriver brights in the mix, and looks pretty darn good," Hymer said.

The largest upriver bright return was 420,700 in 1987, and more than 60 percent of the 2011 return is expected to be larger 4-year-olds.

The lower river hatchery chinook forecast is 133,500 (90,600 and 103,000), and would be the best return since 2003 and larger than the 10-year average.

The lower river wild chinook forecast is 12,500 (9,700 and 10,900) and improved over the past four years, but slightly below the 10-year average.

The Bonneville Pool hatchery chinook forecast of 116,400 (169,000 and 130,800) is a bit down but still better than the 10-year average.

The Bonneville upriver bright chinook forecast is 37,600 (30,300 and 29,400), the 10-year average is 47,500.

The Columbia Pool upriver bright chinook forecast is 62,400 (42,300 and 49,600) the third largest return on record (1986 was a record return), and higher than the 10-year average of 43,800.

This comes on the heels of what should be a modest return of coho salmon as well.

It will not be a stellar year for ocean coho, but we'll see a little better number in the Columbia River run, according to Doug Milward, a state Fish and Wildlife coastal-salmon manager.

The Oregon Production Index, which provides an ocean abundance forecast calls for 624,500 coho to arrive off the Washington coast, compared to a preseason forecast of 556,000 last year (818,100 was the actual return).

State Fish and Wildlife will unveil its forecasts at 9 a.m. Tuesday at a public meeting in the General Administration Building Auditorium, 11th Avenue and Columbia Street in Olympia. Final seasons will be set April 9-14 in San Mateo, Calif. For a list of meetings, go to http://wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/northfalcon.

Word on razor clams

The most recent coastal razor clam digs held last Thursday to Saturday drew a good number of people and many found success.

"It was definitely a good weekend of clam digging, and was the second largest crowd of the (winter) season," said Dan Ayres, the head state Fish and Wildlife coastal shellfish biologist.

Digging from Feb. 17-19 drew 24,700 digger trips with an average of 13.5 clams per person (the first 15 dug is a daily limit).

"The only place that diggers struggled to get their clams was at Kalaloch, and I'm not sure what is going on there," Ayres said. "We will definitely have some clams left for spring digging, but maybe not as much as it had been in some years."

Ayres says they plan to announce some possible opening dates for March by early this week.

Outdoor calendar

March 19: Ilwaco, Westport and LaPush reopen for lingcod fishing; April 16: Neah Bay reopens for lingcod fishing; April 29-30: Washington State Federation of Fly Fishers Show at Ellensburg Event Center/Fairgrounds (www.washingtoncouncilfff.org); April 30: Washington lowland lakes trout fishing opener; May 21-22: South Olympic Peninsula Outdoor Adventure & Recreation Expo at Grays Harbor Fairgrounds in Elma (www.ghcfairgrounds.com); June 19: The Jimmy Green Memorial Fly Fishing Show and Casting Expo at Lake Tye in Monroe (www.jimmygreenflyexpo.com).

Notes

• The Northwest Fly Anglers five-week advanced fly-tying class will be held on Thursday evenings 7 p.m. beginning March 3-April 7. at Ingraham High School, 1819 North 135th Street in Seattle. Cost is $50 and limited to 12 people. Details: 206-367-1723.

• The Puget Sound Anglers of Lake Washington meeting is 6:45 p.m. March 10 at the Community Center at Mercer View, 8236 S.E. 24th Street on Mercer Island. Mike Meseberg of Mar-Don Resort will discuss warm-water gamefish in Potholes Reservoir. Details: 425-823-0704 or www.psalakewashington.org.

• The Northshore Trout Unlimited meeting is the second Tuesday of each month 7 p.m. at the Shoreline-Lake Forest Park Senior Center, 18560 1st Ave. N.E. in Shoreline. Details: http://northshoretu.blogspot.com.

• The Washington Butterfly Association free presentation is 7 p.m. March 2 at the Center for Urban Horticulture, 3501 N.E. 41st St. in Seattle. Guest speaker David Droppers will share his dichotomous key to the Blues of Washington, and an identification course. Details: 206-364-4935 or www.naba.org/Chapters/nabaws.

• The Coastal Conservation Association Sea-Tac Chapter banquet and auction is 4:30 p.m. March 12 at the Pioneer Park Pavilion, 330 South Meridian in Puyallup. Cost is $75. Details: 206-910-9065.

• The Washington State Chapter of the Ruffed Grouse Society Habitat Banquet and Auction is 5:30 p.m. March 12 at the Red Lion Hotel, 11211 Main St. in Bellevue. Cost is $60. Details: 425-649-5194 or e-mail bgolson2@msn.com or www.ruffedgrousesociety.org.

• The South Sound Chapter of Pheasants Forever banquet and silent auction is 5:30 p.m. March 19 at the Tacoma Elks Club, 1965 South Union Avenue in Tacoma. Details: www.pugetsoundpf.org.

• Issaquah Paddle Sports is accepting registration for Lake Sammamish spring nature tours 9 a.m.-noon and 1:30-4:30 p.m. March 12, and 1:30-4:30 p.m. March 13 at Lake Sammamish State Park in Issaquah. Cost is $6, and $10-$15 for kayak rentals. Preregistration is required. Details: 206-527-1825 or 866-306-1825 or www.kayakacademy.com.

• Mount St. Helens climbing permits are on sale. Cost is $22. Permits are required year-round to climb above 4,800 feet. Details: 360-891-5007 or www.mshinstitute.org.

• The South King County Puget Sound Anglers is offering a Marine Science Scholarship to a 2011 graduating high school senior who plans to pursue a Marine Science or Fisheries career. Apply at www.TheWashBoard.org. Details: www.pugetsoundanglers.net.

• The Washington Fly Fishing Club is offering a four-week Advanced Fly Casting Class starting April 6, and six-week Beginning Fly Casting Class starting April 7 at the Green Lake casting pier in Seattle. Cost is $50 for advanced and $45 for beginner class. Details: 206-542-4623 or www.wffc.com.

• The Washington Sea Grant and the Port of Seattle Fishermen's Terminal are hosting a four-week boat engine troubleshooting and maintenance workshop beginning March 8 at the Nordby Building at Fishermen's Terminal in Seattle. Cost is $150, and preregistration is advised. Details: 206-543-1225 or sfisken@u.washington.edu.

• The Issaquah Alps Trails Club hosts weekly hikes and meets in downtown Issaquah. Details: www.issaquahalps.org.

• The Washington Trails Association offers statewide trip reports and trail conditions. Details: www.wta.org.

• The Seattle Audubon Society offers field trips and classes every month. Details: 206-523-4483 or www.seattleaudubon.org.

• The Western Bass Club meets every third Thursday at 7 p.m. at the Kennydale Hall in Renton. Details: www.westernbassclub.comor www.nickbarrfishing.com.

• The new nonprofit Cascade Musky Association is looking for members. Cost is $25 or $35 for a couple/family membership. Details: www.cascademuskyassociation.com or www.wafish.com.

Mark Yuasa: 206-464-8780 or myuasa@seattletimes.com; twitter.com/MarkKYuasa