Preakness Stakes | Analysis and selections

RACE ANALYSIS

First of all, let's wish all the equine athletes a safe day on racetracks, from Emerald Downs to Old Hilltop, where the 133rd running of the Preakness takes place.

"I hope everything goes good. I hope everybody comes back good," trainer Nick Zito said earlier this week. "That's what everybody wants, for the horses to come back safe. Unfortunately, these big races have been under the microscope."

The microscope today will be on the highly-touted runner BIG BROWN. The Kentucky Derby winner is the logical choice to be draped in Black-Eyed Susans. But is it smart to bet him at roughly 2-5? I don't think so.

I'd rather try to beat him with ICABAD CRANE and KENTUCKY BEAR. Icabad's 3 for 3 over a dirt surface and just won the Federico Tesio Stakes over the Pimlico course. Jockey Jeremy Rose, who won this race aboard Afleet Alex in 2005, will hope for a fast pace and make his rally from 8 to 10 lengths behind. The big negative is that runners making their prior start at Pimlico are winless since 1972 when Bee Bee Bee beat 1-5 favorite Riva Ridge.

KENTUCKY BEAR makes his fourth career start but flashed big talent in winning his debut by a half-dozen lengths at Gulfstream Park. He reportedly bled in start No. 2, so ignore the poor effort. He enters today's race fresh and should be ready for a top effort after running third in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes five weeks ago.

BIG BROWN overcame a few obstacles (wide trip, lightly raced and a big field) to win the Derby, using a knockout punch when unleashed during the stretch. He did have a few things go his way — a slow pace, raced in the clear and his main rivals were simply too far behind. "The butterflies are going to be there," jockey Kent Desormeaux said earlier this week. "We just don't know how resilient the horse is. We don't know if he gets into a dogfight that he'll just say, 'Not this time. I'll catch you next time.' "

GIANT MOON never really had a chance to relax in the Wood Memorial as he was sandwiched by rivals for most of the race. He still lost by just two lengths.

SELECTIONS

First — Icabad Crane

Second — Kentucky Bear

Third — Big Brown

Fourth — Giant Moon

Gary Dougherty