Originally published Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 12:00 AM
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Print viewHandicapping the Kentucky Derby
My $600 rebate check from the IRS landed in the mailbox just at the perfect time — a day before the Kentucky Derby. I've cashed it and...
20-1
C. Borel (1-5)
D. Carroll (0-0)
4/3-0-0
Twenty-five years ago Eddie Delahoussaye won this race two straight years (1982-83). Now it's Calvin's chance.
17. Cowboy Cal
20-1
J. Velazquez (0-9)
T. Pletcher (0-19)
6/3-2-0
Trainer will try to avoid making it five straight years having a horse finish last or second to last.
18. Recapturetheglory
20-1
E. Baird (0-0)
L. Roussel III (0-2)
6/2-1-2
His 3-year-old glory has come and gone — winning the Illinois Derby on April 5.
19. Gayego
15-1
M. Smith (1-14)
P. Lobo (0-0)
5/3-2-0
Dug in to win the Arkansas Derby but received perfect trip. Betting his run in front of 160,000 will be much different.
20. Big Brown
3-1
K. Desormeaux (2-14)
R. Dutrow (0-0)
3/3-0-0
Don't get stuck behind Rick Dutrow when betting. He's bringing a wheelbarrow full of money to bet on his horse.
30-1
R. Douglas (0-1)
B. Mott (0-4)
8/2-0-3
Last win came at Delta Downs, and he's winless (0-3) as a 3-year-old.
12. Smooth Air
20-1
M. Cruz (0-0)
B. Stutts (0-0)
7/3-2-2
Cruz and Stutts — not your household names on the first Saturday in May.
13. Bob Black Jack
20-1
R. Migliore (0-4)
J. Kasparoff (0-0)
7/3-2-1
Can a Cal-bred win the Derby after setting world record for 6 furlongs (1:06-2/5) earlier this year? Nope.
14. Monba
15-1
R. Dominguez (0-4)
T. Pletcher (0-19)
5/3-0-0
Won Grade I Blue Grass over stablemate Cowboy Cal, so his earnings skyrocketed. I'll give 10,000-1 on a Pletcher exacta.
15. Adriano
30-1
E. Prado (1-8)
G. Motion (0-0)
7/3-1-0
Debuted on the turf and has run once on old-fashioned dirt — not a typical Derby-winning résumé.
20-1
J. Leparoux (0-1)
N. Zito (2-19)
8/4-1-0
The inside post is 0 for 21 (third place being the best finish) since Ferdinand and Bill Shoemaker won the 1986 race.
2. Tale of Ekati
15-1
E. Coa (0-1)
B. Tagg (1-3)
6/3-1-0
Not a good sign when jockey Edgar Prado goes elsewhere after winning the Wood Memorial.
3. Anak Nakal
30-1
R. Bejarano (0-3)
N. Zito (2-19)
6/2-1-0
Zito's past 16 Derby runners have finished out of the money dating to 1995.
4. Court Vision
20-1
G. Gomez (0-4)
B. Mott (0-4)
6/3-1-2
He has won over the Churchill strip and should pass runners late to nab a small piece.
5. Eight Belles
15-1
G. Saez (0-0)
L. Jones (0-1)
9/5-2-1
You think Hillary is in tough? Watch this gray filly tackle 19 boys under the Twin Spires.
15-1
R. Albarado (0-9)
S. Asmussen (0-7)
6/3-2-0
Had every chance to win Arkansas Derby after wide trip — not endorsing a hanger to get draped in roses.
7. Big Truck
50-1
J. Castellano (0-2)
B. Tagg (1-3)
8/3-1-1
Works like a Ferarri in the morning but think he'll run like a 5-miles-to-the gallon, beat-up truck.
8. Visionaire
20-1
J. Lezcano (0-1)
M. Matz (1-1)
6/3-1-1
A very wide trip and slow pace really compromised his chances in the Blue Grass Stakes.
9. Pyro
6-1
S. Asmussen (0-7)
S. Bridgmohan (0-2)
7/3-2-1
Every Derby winner since 1957 finished at least fourth in its prep race — this guy finished 10th (but on Polytrack).
10. Colonel John
4-1
C. Nakatani (0-13)
E. Harty (0-0)
6/4-2-0
Exploded in final 50 yards to win 1-1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby; another eighth of a mile should make him grin.
My $600 rebate check from the IRS landed in the mailbox just at the perfect time — a day before the Kentucky Derby. I've cashed it and will be at Emerald Downs to watch and wager on the 134th Run for the Roses.
But first, I'll fill my gas tank to the brim because it's tough handicapping 20 3-year-olds running 1 ¼ miles for the first time.
Some good news did come earlier this week when Rick Dutrow Jr., the zany trainer of lukewarm favorite Big Brown, selected post No. 20 when he had other options.
History says horses from the furthest outside post don't win — that last occurred in 1950 when there were at least 10 horses in the field. A couple who were in the same horseshoes as Big Brown were Point Given (9-5 favorite in 2001), who finished fifth after breaking from post 17, and Unbridled's Song (7-2 favorite in 1996 with post 19) who called it quits after leading at the mile mark and finishing off the board.
Another big negative on Big Brown's sheet is that he has started just three times. Derby winners are more experienced. The past 35 horses dating to 1920 with either three or four lifetime starts all came up short, including the great Curlin last year.
Those facts make the favorite vulnerable so I've narrowed it down to two — Pyro and Colonel John.
PYRO has enough experience with seven career starts and just one hiccup — a lackluster Polytrack performance in the Blue Grass Stakes three weeks ago. He seemed fidgety during that post parade and was off slowly when the gates opened. Just draw a line through that race and realize he rallied very impressively in his two Fair Grounds stakes wins. Pyro will get a solid pace to run at, and his breeding suggests he will handle 10 furlongs.
COLONEL JOHN overcame adversity while racing over synthetic tracks in Southern California, winning four of six starts and being no worse than second. He was shuffled back in the Santa Anita Derby but still won when Corey Nakatani found a seam in the final 100 yards. This will be Nakatani's 15th ride in the Derby, and it's easily his best chance. Colonel John's fast workout earlier this week over the Churchill surface means all systems go.
BIG BROWN started his career on the Saratoga turf and is in Louisville after just three career starts. All three have been smashing efforts with a combined winning margin of 29 lengths. He'll either race four or five wide into the first turn and lose ground, or he'll have to go too fast too early to get a better position.
COURT VISION might be rounding into top form for his third start after a three-month layoff. He won three straight races as a 2-year-old, including a stakes at Churchill Downs.
First — Pyro.
Second — Colonel John.
Third — Big Brown.
Fourth — Court Vision.
Listed by program number, with horse, morning-line odds, jockey and trainer (Derby records in parentheses), race record (starts/win-place-show) and comments by Gary Dougherty
Copyright © 2008 The Seattle Times Company
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