Voters here know what they want: economic fix

Pat Slusher stood outside his rare-coins shop in downtown Centralia and pointed to empty parking spaces lining the street at lunch time.

"A month ago, this time of day, all these spaces would be full," said Slusher, 66, who has run his store for 40 years. "As you progress in the afternoon, there's more and more parking available. It's uncanny.

"It has to be the economy."

That might serve as a slogan for Tuesday's election as well. A collective angst about the economy, expressed repeatedly in interviews in Western Washington, is at the top of voter concerns.

On the national stage, worries about the deepening economic crisis are fueling a Democratic surge. Sen. Barack Obama is leading Republican Sen. John McCain in the polls. And in Congress, incumbent Republicans who seemed safe a month ago are suddenly in trouble.

Those fears will likely be a powerful force in local balloting as well.

A recent University of Washington poll found 59 percent of voters surveyed cited the economy as their top concern — up dramatically from only 7 percent a year ago. The Secretary of State's Office predicts more voters will turn out this election than at any time since World War II.

"There's a certain amount of desperation that is driving voters to the polls in droves," said Linda Kadlec, the mayor of Ritzville in Adams County. "It seems to me that everyone is looking for an instant fix to the world's problems."

Economic problems and government budget woes are dominating much of the debate in the most competitive races, notably the rematch between Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire and Republican Dino Rossi, and the 8th District congressional race where Republican Rep. Dave Reichert is being challenged by Democrat Darcy Burner.

And the state of the economy could have an impact on a slew of expensive public-works ballot proposals, including Proposition 1, the $17.9 billion expansion of Sound Transit; repairs to Pike Place Market; and a parks levy in Seattle.

But other forces complicate the picture, particularly in the governor's race.

Most voters are already familiar with the candidates. Gregoire beat Rossi in 2004 by 133 votes, after two recounts and a lawsuit. Many decided whom they were going to vote for long before the Wall Street meltdown.

But polls show that in the most expensive governor's race in state history — with more than $40 million spent by the candidates and their backers — there's still a significant number of undecided voters.

Although voters tend to blame President Bush for the economy, Rossi has spent much of his campaign trying to tie Gregoire to current conditions by talking about tax increases approved by the governor, higher spending during her term and a projected $3.2 billion shortfall in the state budget next year.

Gregoire has countered by blaming Bush for the state's problems and trying to link Rossi to the president's "failed economic policies."

Different areas, differing vantage points

There are two signs propped up in the windows of Slusher's store in downtown Centralia, a town of about 15,000 in Lewis County.

One is for McCain and the other for Rossi. There's no doubt how he's going to vote.

"Gregoire, she's scary," Slusher said. "I think she's killing us, I really do."

A friend, Bill Morse, 69, stood nearby. He felt the same way, and talked about the projected shortfall in the state budget; taxes approved during Gregoire's term; and what he considered questionable support the governor has received from interest groups, including tribes.

Both men said they think Gregoire has mishandled the state's economy.

"Re-elect Rossi," quipped Morse, a play on the feeling by many Rossi supporters that their candidate really won the tight 2004 election. "Christine has run this country into the ground."

And 90 miles north of Centralia, in the shadow of Lenin's statue in the Fremont neighborhood of Seattle, voters supporting Gregoire echoed the arguments made by the governor and her backers.

Robert Dapper, 47, runs an apartment building in Fremont and said he's concerned about the economy. "My mom has stock, and her stock is dropping like crazy. She's 78 years old. So I'm worried about her," he said.

He blames Republicans, not Gregoire, for the problems facing Washington. "She's been pretty much a stand-up gal for the state," he said.

Dapper also mentioned a recent lawsuit filed by Gregoire supporters alleging Rossi illegally coordinated with the Building Industry Association of Washington during the election. Gregoire supporters have hammered home connections between Rossi and the BIAW in television ads.

Claire Greenhill, a psychotherapist in Fremont, also said she doesn't hold Gregoire responsible for the projected budget shortfall. "It's not a unique situation," Greenhill said, making a point Gregoire has stressed in recent months. "It feels like being scared into a vote ... The shortfall will be there regardless of who is elected."

Some voters aren't sure what to think yet.

In Sammamish, Rossi's hometown, Sean Norman said he's leaning toward the Republican, but wants to find out more about Gregoire.

Norman, a 23-year-old marketing manager for a software company, said he's heard about the projected budget shortfall Rossi keeps talking about.

"Everyone can spend money," he said, "but what's the return? Are you spending money in the right way? And if you're not spending money, are you still doing things to improve the situation? That's what I want to go and read about before I make a decision."

Predictions are tricky

Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, says Gregoire has an advantage because of the apparent Democratic tide sweeping the nation and the fact Obama is expected to carry Washington by a large margin.

"She's never been a very popular governor," Sabato said, but added, "she has the most precious commodity in politics this year, a 'D' next to her name."

But the UW poll of 600 registered voters shows just how tricky it is to make a prediction in the governor's race

The poll also indicates the majority of voters who cite the economy as their top concern are supporting Gregoire — 57 percent, compared with 41 percent for Rossi.

"Nationally the public thinks the Republicans are to blame" for the economic downturn, said Matt Barreto, director of the poll. "Once that's in their mind, it's very difficult to then say, 'but here in Washington it's the Democratic governor's fault.' "

That would suggest Rossi hasn't been completely successful in his efforts to link Gregoire to the economic downturn.

Yet the UW poll, among others, highlighted another trend that benefits Rossi.

Younger voters, ages 18 to 34, are expected to vote heavily for Obama. In Washington's governor race, though, they appear to be breaking for Rossi, 56 percent to 40 percent, according to the UW poll.

If true, that could prove significant. State records indicate that more than 340,000 new voters have registered this year, and roughly 60 percent are in that 18-34 age group.

Rossi's campaign sent out a statement this week saying, "In a year where young people are motivated to vote for 'change,' we see that they're continuing down the ticket and voting for Dino."

Regardless of who wins next week, there's some skepticism whether anybody can make things better.

"All these people, even Gregoire and Rossi, neither one of them can produce everything they promise," Slusher said, before heading back to his store. "That's a given for politicians."

Andrew Garber: 360-236-8266 or agarber@seattletimes.com