Rep. Paul Ryan: a Republican in political no man's land

Congressional Republicans often talk up Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., as a potential governor, senator or House leader. The lanky, youthful-looking congressman has begged off, citing his young children and limited desire to spend all his time raising campaign money.

Instead, Ryan is running a campaign of a different sort, one his party refuses to adopt: He is determined to persuade colleagues to get serious about eliminating the national debt, even if it means openly broaching overhauls of Medicare and Social Security.

Ryan, 40, speaks of the debt with evangelical zeal and in apocalyptic terms. He will go anywhere and talk to anyone. When not writing op-eds and appearing on television, he often is found speaking to liberal and conservative audiences alike about his "Roadmap for America's Future," a plan he says would fix the problem.

Yet, in this highly charged election season with both houses of Congress at stake, few politicians are lining up publicly behind Ryan. Nonetheless, like many other politicians whose ideas once were considered extreme, only to later be mainstream — such as Ronald Reagan — some see Ryan as on the leading edge of something.

His elaborate (critics say drastic) plan aims to erase the federal debt by 2063, simplify the tax code and significantly alter (his critics say eviscerate) Medicare and Social Security. Asked to handicap the 2012 Republican presidential field, Sarah Palin called Ryan "sharp." Newt Gingrich dubbed him "extraordinarily formidable." And, in a column, George Will imagined him as vice president to a President Mitch Daniels (now the Republican governor of Indiana).

And President Obama may have given Ryan and his Roadmap the broadest attention yet. Obama has alluded to the plan as a "serious proposal" (although the White House promptly made it clear that it had problems with the details), and Ryan is one of six congressional Republicans on a commission that the president created to propose solutions to the debt.

Still, Ryan is worried that neither party will be eager to adopt his ideas because of politics. "Political people always tell their candidates to stay away from controversy," Ryan said. "They say, 'Don't propose anything new or bold because the other side will use it against you.' "

The "political people" no doubt include many Republican colleagues who, even as they praise Ryan for his doggedness, privately consider the Roadmap a path to electoral disaster. Indeed, only 13 House Republicans have signed on as co-sponsors.

At a recent appearance where Ryan touted the Roadmap at the center-left Brookings Institution, someone asked him why more conservatives weren't behind his budget plan. "They're talking to their pollsters," Ryan said, "and their pollsters are saying, 'Stay away from this. We're going to win an election.' "

House Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio has praised Ryan but says the Roadmap would not be a part of the Republican agenda this fall. "There are parts of it that are well-done," Boehner said last month. "Other parts I have some doubts about, in terms of how good the policy is."

Even some of Ryan's loudest supporters are reluctant to support the Roadmap top to bottom. Gingrich, a former House speaker, has lavished praise on Ryan's intellect and discipline but hasn't endorse the plan.

"I think it's a very good starting point," Gingrich said. "It's not a yes-no. When you undertake change on that scale, you have to have a national conversation."

First elected at 28

Ryan entered Congress in 1998 at age 28. Fit from years of an intense exercise program called P90X and with hair as thick as Rod Blagojevich's (and cut in a more contemporary fashion), he has become a regular on the cable-news circuit, and a book about conservative politics that he co-wrote — "Young Guns" — will include his picture on the cover when it comes out this fall.

Ryan has been talking about his ideas since 2008, when he published an earlier version. It has grown into a voluminous document that includes page after page of minutely detailed charts and tables and includes a 75-year analysis of how the changes he proposes would affect the federal debt.

People could choose a simplified, two-rate tax system. Corporate income tax would be replaced with a business consumption tax.

For people now younger than 55, Medicare would become a voucher program in which they would buy private insurance, and Social Security would allow people to create individual investment accounts paid for with payroll taxes. With both entitlement programs, the age eligibility requirements would increase gradually.

Dems see opportunity

Advocates praise the plan as a realistic way to take on the nation's out-of-control debt and prevent the utter collapse of Medicare and Social Security. Critics say it would gut those programs and leave old, vulnerable people fending for themselves. Most political consultants advise steering clear of the conversation: Messing with Social Security and Medicare, they calculate, never wins votes — something Wisconsin Democrats have homed in on.

"We will be talking about his oddball plan to end Medicare and privatize Social Security," said Graeme Zielinski, a spokesman for the state Democratic Party. "Republicans usually do a tap dance around the reality of the Republican fantasy of ending Social Security and Medicare. One thing you can say for him: He really wants to make it the reality."

During several town-hall-style meetings on a recent day, Ryan received a few questions about Social Security and Medicare but no pointed complaints. His plan, he told one group, is not to end anything.

"If we did that, my mom would kill me," Ryan said, adding that his mother, Betty, receives Social Security.

Later, he said, "I don't think these things are third rails anymore. People are ready for this."

Ryan and his allies — who admit that the Roadmap is unlikely to get a real hearing in Congress soon — say Republican colleagues who have yet to support the idea probably are following the admonitions of political consultants. But Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Calif., who signed on to the Roadmap months ago, says candidates in 2012 will be forced to take a stand — up or down — on its ideas.

"The deficit isn't going away, the entitlements aren't getting better, and it's tough times out there," Nunes said. "The presidential candidates are going to have a problem with this."