Boeing's concentric circles of fear

Stubbornly high unemployment and seemingly no end to the flurry of pink slips and public-service cutbacks had us stressed out long before Boeing decided to build a new airplane-assembly plant in Charleston, S.C.

Sitting at my local PTA meeting the other night, discussion of upcoming school levies turned into a doomsday scenario in which otherwise reasonable voters might reject the money measures — even in the face of statewide education cuts.

Let's put these fears into context. The economy, however scary it has been, is in recovery both locally and nationally. New third-quarter gross domestic product figures shows the American economy grew at an annual rate of 3.5 percent, a stark contrast to the decline of 6.4 percent two quarters ago. The Obama administration says stimulus spending saved more than 1 million jobs. The nation is on track to create 3.5 million jobs by the end of the year.

Locally, October reporting on home sales shows an uptick, with buyers taking last-minute advantage of the expiring homebuyer tax credit.

But even the sold signs elicit responses such as, "yeah, but was it a short sale?" In other words, good news comes wrapped in bad tidings.

Common sense tells us Boeing moving is about more than rapacious labor unions. Perhaps it is part of the aerospace company's "Southern strategy" to gain political support for defense contracts. And we know South Carolina entering the picture doesn't take away current jobs.

But perception can be as powerful as reality, says Allison Butcher, director of public affairs for the Master Builders Association.

Unemployment remains high, meaning "people who are economically secure perceive they're going to lose their jobs and so they're holding back" on spending, Butcher says in explaining why homebuilders and developers aren't doing somersaults yet as the economy slowly recovers.

Fear affects everything, including how we vote. On Monday, I spoke with Don Gerend, a former Boeing rocket scientist running for re-election to the Sammamish City Council.

Residents in this upscale, suburban community that depends on real-estate excise taxes might have felt upbeat enough yesterday to stay with him. Or fears of further economic erosion may find Gerend jobless this morning.

Still, he has adopted a sanguine tone.

Feelings that this region is withering on the vine could get oppressive, but he simply reminds people of the Boeing bust of the 1970s. In hindsight, it was a time when getting laid off was the best thing that could have happened for some of his colleagues. One opened a restaurant in Pioneer Square and another hung out his shingle and became a consultant.

A similar tone will be adopted by state Rep. Reuven Carlyle when he speaks to small-business owners next week at a confab hosted by the Washington Policy Center. The bad news is the recession has resulted in many people being underemployed. But that, says the Seattle Democrat, has spurred a shift away from full-time, traditional corporate structures toward flexible home-based work hours, small businesses or turning untapped energy and experience toward volunteer projects.

"People are balancing meaning with financial reality," Carlyle says.

Not to be the resident cynic here, but talking with neighbors, members of my local gym and even the guy at the checkout stand, I'm not seeing a flawless balance of fear and optimism. Yes, the Puget Sound's economic diversity has lessened our dependence on Boeing, but we all know that even a small exodus of skilled airplane mechanics to buttress South Carolina's fledgling work force could cause home values to dive, again.

Carlyle and Gerend may prove right about our collective ability to make lemonade out of lemons, but in place of genuine hope right now, I see fears beneath tight-lipped smiles and praise for unemployment benefits. Most families need two incomes to survive; right now, one of them is unemployment. Call it the psychological impact of Boeing's decision, or call it anxiety. It is going to be with us awhile.

Lynne K. Varner's column appears regularly on editorial pages of The Times. Her e-mail address is lvarner@seattletimes.com