Once imposed, taxes tend to stay around

IN this city of dawning light, the confidence in government is nearly as low as during the late 1970s when home interest rates were at about 17 percent.

Then, as now, there is a feeling that the people who run the store are sorely out of the touch with the renters above. The AIG scandal is but one example, with Congress veering from capitulation to getting the tumbrels out on the Potomac.

The nation yearns for stability. We can take almost anything if it is presented logically instead of politically. A new president is already at odds with his party's majority in Congress, which might explain why he is out of town so much.

At home, Seattle marches through a slack time, typical of this season of both light and dark. We are at home, after all, and understand the seasons better than most Americans, who think of temperature instead of light. Light is our thermometer, especially when it arrives through the windows early enough to find the coffee pot without overhead neon.

In Olympia, the position of the majority Democrats appears to be to cut enough of the state budget to get through the twilight session and then lay a tax increase on the ballot in June.

Gov. Christine Gregoire pledged no new taxes, but no one in Olympia counts fees as taxes.

Exhibit A is the proposed surcharge on tuition payments for state universities. This is not a new tax, except on those who pay it.

A two-year surcharge on tuition of 3 to 7 percent would be added onto the already-approved tuition increases of up to 7 percent. It's unclear if the universities will ask for their full amount of the increase, but the surcharge is going to easily pass a Legislature frozen in time by huge budget shortfalls.

The surcharge would add about $875 annually to state tuitions next fall, according to Seattle Times reporter Nick Perry.

Of course, making university education more expensive goes against every statistic and beggary coming before the Legislature about the need to increase the number of diplomas produced in Washington.

The surcharge, if adopted by a simple majority in Olympia, will come about because of the lack of an organized parent/student constituency. The legislators don't need to confront the unions, the university lobbyists, the builders or the farmers with such a surcharge. Amid the steady drumbeat that the state needs greater access to classrooms, the price goes up.

The mantra of the state budget this early in the session is that things are so bad it's hard to cut enough to make the difference. Hence, the trial balloon of a tax vote in June.

Wait, as more come drifting our way. Attempts to tax service industries, such as lawyers, accountants, barber shops and architects have long been growing saliva in Olympia. Fees unrelated to specific services may be coming and, finally, a strong drive to increase state taxes across the board.

The Legislature will say, "We did all we could, now it is up to the people," but the people will be expected to vote for a tax hike in addition to the new fees and surcharges.

A two-year budget of $39.3 billion is needed to maintain state services, the government accountants said, while anticipating revenues of $30.3 billion in the same stretch of time — until 2011. The $9 billion difference may become higher.

I understand there is precious little light in the backrooms of the legislative dome and I also accept that the state is trying to moderate its spending appetite.

Yet we know tax increases never go away, and sunset laws are made to pause while more money is collected. There's always a reason the budget must increase, as predictable as the dawn.

James F. Vesely's column appears Sunday on editorial pages of The Times. His e-mail address is: jvesely@seattletimes.com