Rossi's loss to Gov. Gregoire leaves state GOP in dire straits

The biggest surprise of Election 2008 is how well Democratic incumbent Gov. Christine Gregoire fared. The conventional-wisdom prediction of a squeaky-close race turned into a seven-point victory. All this while election officials in her stronghold, King County, were still marinating ballots in a vat of fine wine and olive oil.

Gregoire's commanding victory leaves state Republicans in dire straits, shattered, demoralized — pick your pejorative.

Usually, a party that loses big has a bracing, follow-up meeting and analyzes itself carefully. The current state Republican Party is not well-positioned even to accomplish that. For starters, who would lead the way?

The party's rising star is Republican state Attorney General Rob McKenna, who soared to re-election victory. The boy-governor-in-waiting is more moderate in tone and policy than Republican challenger Dino Rossi, but McKenna's job is to be the state's lawyer. That makes it difficult for him to do what a party leader needs to do: Stand up and articulate a cogent Republican message for crestfallen Republicans around the state.

McKenna cannot lambaste Gregoire's spending priorities or anything else. He is hired to defend her and the rest of the state.

Rossi's loss is a grim one for the GOP. No Republican has won a spot in the Washington governor's mansion since former King County Executive John Spellman in 1980, losing after one term. The key thing about Spellman, if anyone remembers, is he is a very moderate Republican.

Rossi was the party's best hope after 24 years of wandering in the tumbleweeds. He is not moderate politically but has the feel of a populist who did not really depend on big business too much to deliver election goodies for him. The old coalition of leaders of large Washington employers do not rally around Republican candidates the way they once did. Rossi, though, finessed a bridge between the populist and business wings of the party.

Campaign-contribution limits have diminished the impact of business, and business leaders have had to hedge their bets and get along with and contribute to Democrats. Besides, some top leaders in business these days are Democrats themselves, including key figures at Microsoft and Boeing.

Now, when the party needs to regroup, who exactly are they going to call?

Rossi may be finished politically. It's up to him, sort of. Republicans are unlikely to back him a third time for governor. It is time for someone new to step in. That person likely will be McKenna, if he is interested.

Gregoire benefited from the Democratic tide. It was huge. Her decision to endorse Sen. Barack Obama in February may have been her single most important decision of the past few years.

Voters know she overspent the state budget in the past few years but they share some blame because she spent on things they want — for example, smaller class sizes and higher teacher salaries. She reinstated expensive citizen initiatives from earlier years that accomplished these goals and cost a lot.

Surely, the Republicans ought to blame themselves for some of Rossi's failure. The GOP used to be the party of the boardroom and the country club and now it is the party of evangelical megachurches and talk radio. This kind of stuff is a turnoff to mainstream voters — unless conditions are more ripe for a Republican, as they were four years ago.

If the GOP wants to win in a bluish state like Washington, the party will have to offer real moderates. Since Spellman's loss in 1984, Republicans have done the opposite, putting up very conservative candidates for the state's top job: ultraright Bob Williams in 1988, similarly far right Ellen Craswell in 1996, talk-show host John Carlson in 2000 and Rossi in 2004 and 2008.

In Washington, D.C., this week or next, defeated Republicans at the national level can assemble a coalition of business, trade and gun groups to regroup and assess what to do next.

In this Washington, the coalition that would gather would be very small and leaderless. That's why Rossi's loss stings so much. The party is beaten up. Rossi fought hard because the race was about the future of the party. It will be a while before Republicans gather themselves together enough to rebuild.

Joni Balter's column appears regularly on editorial pages of The Times. Her e-mail address is jbalter@seattletimes.com; for a podcast Q&A with the author, go to www.seattletimes.com/edcetera