Joni Balter: Gregoire-Rossi: ridiculously close

National and local political wizards looking with furrowed brows at Washington's gubernatorial race are asking one obvious question: Democratic state. Democratic year. Why do so many polls show the race so close?

Of 11 gubernatorial races nationwide, only three are listed by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report as toss-ups — as in 9 or fewer percentage points separating the candidates. Two of those are open seats. Only one incumbent, Christine Gregoire, falls into this unnerving category.

What gives? Here are my Top 10 reasons why the race remains so tight. And no, this is not a Letterman ha-ha list. It's real nitty-gritty stuff.

No. 1, the economy: Gregoire has little to do with the economy but she does own part of the anticipated deficit. She and the Democrats spent on popular programs such as smaller school class sizes and increased health-care coverage for 84,000 low-income children. Few voters connect the dots. They want those programs — without a deficit. Republican Dino Rossi can use the anticipated deficit to slap her around.

No. 2, likability: Gregoire is a strong, competent leader. But for whatever reason, people don't know her or adore her. Rossi, on the other hand, has a 10-mile smile. His conservative politics may not be in sync with Washington (see Reason No. 7) but he just seems happy-go-lucky and friendly.

No. 3, divided government: The more I cover politics, the more I realize people don't want much action from government — well, unless the economy falls apart. But I digress. The Washington House and Senate are heavily Democratic and expected to remain so. Desire for a Republican governor may stem from the idea that government would be essentially gridlocked — a good thing. Rossi wants to work across the aisle. Mr. Rossi, meet the powerful Democratic House Speaker Frank Chopp. He is not preparing to give you a large hug.

No. 4, the polls themselves: Some national polls capture a sufficient number of young voters, some don't. In other words, many new young voters, and there will be a lot of them this year, live by their cellphones. Few statewide pollsters contact these voters. Younger voters supposedly are trending Democratic. But they are off the radar of many polls.

No. 5, Pierce County: Elections in Washington state can be won and lost in Pierce County. No Democrat can win easily without faring well in Pierce County or at least tie. Gregoire and Rossi did just that in Pierce County in the August primary.

No. 6, rematch: Many voters believe the 2004 election was stolen from Rossi. He does not personally go around whining we owe him this election. He lets his BFFs — Best Friends Forever — at the Building Industry Association of Washington do it for him. They have billboard-sized signs in Eastern Washington blasting everybody's favorite whipping boy, Seattle, for stealing the previous election. That question was settled by an Eastern Washington court from a Republican county.

No. 7, social issues: The Gregoire campaign has been blasted for not defining Rossi more clearly in 2004. Few people knew Rossi is very socially conservative. Rossi puts on his winning smile and says his conservative politics don't matter. Gregoire is running one effective ad about Plan B, the morning-after contraceptive. Rossi believes pharmacists should be allowed to refuse to provide these contraceptives. The ads seem aimed at suppressing the considerable pro-Rossi vote in Eastern Washington and tapping suburban voters who think such decisions are not the government's business.

No. 8, change: Rossi has masterfully grabbed the mantle of change. He has been out of government the past four years. Gregoire has been in the governor's chair the same time. One term is not overstaying one's welcome. But she has been in Olympia as state attorney general and director of the ecology department for many years. If it is a throw-the-bums-out year, she could get caught in that.

No. 9, confusion: Pollster Stuart Elway says 25 percent of voters do not know GOP is the same as Republican Party. Under a nutty new system, Rossi is running as "prefers GOP Party" — prefers Grand Old Party Party. Polling data shows him faring better against Gregoire among those who don't know what GOP means. The race is closer for that reason.

No. 10, partisanship: Those who do know what GOP means are more than a little miffed at the Republican Party. Republicans are for deregulation. Rossi is a Republican. That makes Rossi's fresh approach less so.

This race remains ridiculously close.

Joni Balter's column appears regularly on editorial pages of The Times. Her e-mail address is jbalter@seattletimes.com; for a podcast Q&A with the author, go to www.seattletimes.com/edcetera