Making war in a harsh land

Lots of scary headlines in the news beyond the daily roundup of federal bailouts, rickety stock markets and the drift toward becoming a nation of renters again.

On Wednesday, The Seattle Times noted, "Joint chiefs head makes surprise visit to Pakistan." Adm. Mike Mullen scrambled to Islamabad after Pakistan's military leaders Tuesday ordered its forces to fire on U.S. troops if they crossed the border from Afghanistan in pursuit of targeted bad guys.

Pakistan's military and civilian leaders were outraged and humiliated by U.S. commando and bombing raids with civilian casualties.

Presumably, Pakistan and the United States are allies against Afghan Taliban, al-Qaida jihadists and other terrorist groups. Mullen needed to sort things out quickly because the tribal belt along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border is America's next war zone after Iraq. Or so one expects.

The U.S. provided Pakistan's military with as much as $10 billion since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, but still there is a suspicion the country's leaders are only true to the red, white and blue until the checks clear.

Afghanistan is home to a narco-financed militant insurgency that hates America and what it represents. The U.S. bloodied noses in Afghanistan after 9/11, but quickly let itself be distracted by Iraq. Those who would truly do us harm have had time to regroup, and, if need be, find safe haven in Pakistan. They also had time to study what worked in Iraq.

Missed opportunities in Afghanistan surface in the presidential campaign. Both Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain agree amends must be made and attention paid to festering threats in a country pummeled by 30 years of warfare. Virtually none of the institutions of government — civil society — still exist.

The alarming part is how complex the mission will be. Look at Iraq. The Bush administration blundered into six years of war confident military might was sufficient and decisive. The recent, belated dispatch of U.S. troops to Iraq — the surge — is credited with success, but it is only part of the story. A reshuffling of local allegiances known as the Anbar Awakening was key.

Local Sunni forces turned from attacking Americans to fighting al-Qaida after those religious thugs bullied the population with murderous zeal. Now, once idle, angry, young Sunni men, reconstituted as the Sons of Iraq, are looking to the U.S. for monthly paychecks and job training.

Sounds hopeful, but local politics are why U.S. generals always hedge their optimism with cautionary sentences about the fragility of progress. An overconfident Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite, is patting U.S. forces on the back, waving goodbye and arresting local Sunni leaders.

Will harsh lessons about trying to solve political problems by military means be heeded?

"Today, few places on Earth are as important to U.S. national security as the tribal belt along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan," wrote Daniel Markey, in a sobering policy review published in August by the Council on Foreign Relations. Religious, tribal and family relationships are the essence of alliances and survival

This harsh land is the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Reporter Dexter Filkins provided a harrowing ground-level view in the Sept. 7 New York Times Sunday Magazine.

To summarize: No rules apply. The territory exists in an orbit independent of the central government. Tribal ties and blood feuds define politics. Pakistan's army is not truly a national force, and the country's military-intelligence arm is a mystery to outsiders.

The U.S. is not trusted after it dabbled in Afghanistan and was too quickly diverted. Pakistan's new president has a reputation for buying support and skimming money — "Mr. 10 Percent." Feudal politics elevated him after the murder of his wife, Benazir Bhutto.

For now, the U.S. is doing what it knows best: spending money. At least $750 million is pledged to lure young trigger-pullers into job training.

Mullen flew to Islamabad with a tough sell. Lines of experts argue the U.S. has few supporters in Pakistan, where critics see a war against Islam in Iraq. Pakistani civilians, military and security agents will always worry more about India — first and last — than making nice with the U.S.

Lance Dickie's column appears regularly on editorial pages of The Times. His e-mail address is ldickie@seattletimes.com; for a podcast Q&A with the author, go to www.seattletimes.com/edcetera