Gregoire hitches a ride on the Obama bandwagon

When Michelle Obama and Christine Gregoire strolled onto the stage, hugged each other and exchanged a flurry of compliments to raise campaign cash for the governor, all I could think is how lucky Gregoire is.

Last February, after much hand-wringing, Gregoire decided to endorse Michelle's husband, Sen. Barack Obama.

Today, it looks like an easy call. At the time, it wasn't so clear. One of Gregoire's two daughters was pushing for Obama; the other was pitching Sen. Hillary Clinton. The state's two female senators were backing Clinton. King County Executive Ron Sims was a Clintonite. Some fellow governors were urging her not to endorse at all.

She picked Obama and, let's face it: Her re-election fortune may hinge on Obama's success. The O Factor. The Obama tide.

Polls show Obama leading Sen. John McCain in Washington by 10 to 15 percentage points. Gregoire is ahead of Republican opponent Dino Rossi by only three to seven points. It is obvious who needs help from whom.

Every year, presidential candidates and candidates for governor and senator engage in fundraising and other activities that boost one another.

This year, the Republican Governors Association and the Democratic Governors Association are raising record amounts of campaign cash with clear hopes that strong turnout for gubernatorial candidates will boost presidential candidates Obama and McCain.

For Gregoire, the formula works the other way. She is hoping thousands of new voters coming out to vote the first time for Obama might be persuaded to help her as they work their way down ticket.

Many, if not most, new voters nationwide are Democrats. The Republican brand, for the moment, is trashed. Or as retiring Virginia Republican Rep. Tom Davis said in May, "The House Republican brand is so bad right now that if it were dog food, they'd take us off the shelf and put us in a landfill."

So former state Sen. Rossi will be described on the ballot as "prefers GOP party," hoping there won't be so many new Democrats, or at least that when they move down ticket, they will be more amenable to his message of change than her message of continuing her Democratic leadership.

It was clear from the speeches Thursday at WaMu Theater at the Obama/Gregoire fundraiser that Gregoire finds it easier to run against President Bush than against Rossi.

Over and over, she reminded the crowd of the number of days, minutes and seconds until Bush leaves office. She didn't mind dropping the delicious tidbit that Rossi's dog is named W. Get it? A man's best friend.

To Democratic and Republican national governors groups, the Gregoire/Rossi rematch is no idle curiosity out in the great hinterlands. The race is the No. 1 priority for Democrats. The reason is simple. Democrats want to hold onto four Democratic governors. Three Democrats facing re-election — Brian Schweitzer in Montana, Joe Manchin in West Virginia and John Lynch of New Hampshire — enjoy favorable numbers, close to 70 percent.

Gregoire-Rossi is much closer. The race is also one of three or four top priorities for the Republican Governors Association.

RGA has given $170,000 to the state party so far. Over the past year and a half, the DGA has given nearly $1 million to state Democrats and to a group called Evergreen Progress, a new political-action committee running nasty ads about Rossi.

Most money given to state parties cannot be used for direct campaign ads in the governors' race, but is available for get-out-the-vote and party-building efforts. Money given to independent groups can be used for such nasty ads. The viciousness flows in both directions.

The way I see it, in a normal year, Rossi just might win. He, too, enjoys some coattails by latching onto voters who like the maverick qualities of McCain.

But this is not a normal year. If the Obama crowd that surfaced in February returns as pumped up and vigorous, this election is Gregoire's to lose.

Joni Balter's column appears regularly on editorial pages of The Times. Her e-mail address is jbalter@seattletimes.com; for a podcast Q&A with the author, go to www.seattletimes.com/edcetera