Violence defeats democracy in Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe

HARARE, Zimbabwe — It's easy to understand why, five days before the runoff presidential election, opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai announced that he was pulling out of the race.

Speaking at a news conference here in the capital, the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), said he was unwilling to ask the party's supporters to go to the polls on Friday "when that vote will cost them their lives."

Indeed, over the past several weeks, it became increasingly apparent that 84-year-old President Robert Mugabe did not plan to stand down, whatever the outcome of the June 27 ballot.

Senior members of the ruling ZNAU-PF party made it clear that Mugabe would never cede power to someone he considers a puppet of the West.

In other words, even had Tsvangirai won the runoff vote, Mugabe would not have stepped aside.

"We are not going to give up our country for a mere X on a ballot," Mugabe told supporters earlier this month. "How can a ballpoint pen fight with a gun?"

Reports from around the country indicated that the level of violence had increased in recent days, displacing supporters of the opposition party from their home areas so that they could not vote.

At least 60 MDC supporters have been killed and more than 3,000 beaten or tortured since the first round of elections in late March, according to the opposition. Much of this has been in rural areas, but there has been a recent surge in urban violence as well.

The abduction and murder of Abigail Chiroto, the wife of Emmanuel Chiroto, the recently elected MDC mayor of Harare, and the death of four opposition activists in a firebomb attack in the capital are only the most prominent examples of the violence that has swept the country in advance of the vote.

It appears that the nation's army is directly supporting the violence by supplying war veterans and other militant ZANU-PF supporters with guns, transport and bases.

There are reports of soldiers handing out bullets to villagers and warning them that if Mugabe loses, the ammunition will be used against them.

Even before he withdrew from the race, the surge in violence had intimidated many of Tsvangirai's supporters.

"We are back to 2000 — Mugabe is going to win because he controls the process," said Welshman Ncube, a leading opposition official.

Mugabe and his supporters had good reason to fear they would be ousted from power in the runoff.

After all, Tsvangirai performed better than Mugabe in the first round of voting held on March 29.

One of the surprising outcomes of that vote was how well the MDC ran in rural areas long regarded as ZANU-PF strongholds.

It is significant to note that the post-election violence started in these rural areas, where the opposition appeared to be gaining ground.

"We have already covered the gap and can now rest assured that people in rural areas will go and vote for the president," said one ZANU-PF official on condition that his name not be used. "I can tell you right now that we now have the support of all rural areas which had been in ZANU-PF's control."

Ahead of the March elections, ZANU-PF suffered internal turbulence as rival factions competed to succeed Mugabe. Referring to this, the official said, "The divisions we had during the March 29 elections have been ironed out and our people will vote for the president. We are now all campaigning for the president and people understand what it will mean if President Mugabe loses."

Given all these factors, Tsvangirai appears to have had few options but to withdraw from the race.

After all, if he had not, Mugabe had made it clear the country would be plunged into civil war.

Speaking earlier this month, the incumbent president promised "this country shall not again come under the rule and control of Britain, direct or indirect. We are masters of our destiny. Equally, anyone who seeks to undermine our land-reform program — itself the bedrock of our politics from time immemorial — seeks and gets war.

"On these two interrelated matters we are very clear. We are prepared to go to war. We are prepared to fight for our country if we lose it."

Hativagone Mushonga is a reporter in Zimbabwe who writes for the Institute for War and Peace Reporting, a nonprofit organization that trains journalists in areas of conflict. Contact Mushonga at Inn Road, London WC1X 8LT, U.K. (www.iwpr.net).