Battleground Washington?

Exhale.

Finally, it's over. The longest, most excruciating fight for the Democratic nomination for president is past tense.

At long last, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is the presumptive nominee and the history-making, first African American to head a major-party ticket. And New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton — well, she is still flailing but eventually will respect Obama's victory.

Now we go to the political map to consider states that are truly competitive for the November election. Once again, Washington appears on maps of 18 or 20 battleground states, along with Oregon, New Mexico, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada.

It is a bit of a stretch to say Washington is a battleground, especially in a potential blue-tide year. But let's play along. That way, the candidates have to come here, spend money, court us, discuss our issues.

Sen. John McCain ought to stop by and tell us exactly what role he played in the big Boeing tanker deal — you know, the one that ended up going to Europe's Airbus.

Did his push for competition hurt Washington's economy? What was his motive? Did he wrangle for a competitive bid expecting Boeing would win in the end?

Obama should come and explain his perplexing policy on trade — perplexing at least to one of the most trade-dependent states in the nation. In the heat of campaigning, Obama said he wants to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement and he will vote against pending trade pacts with South Korea and Colombia. Trade with South Korea happens to be huge for our state.

One definition of a battleground state is one where candidates were separated by single-digit percentage points in the most recent presidential election. In 2004, John Kerry beat President George Bush in Washington by 7.2 percent.

Other factors this year include a close governor's race; the contest between Gov. Christine Gregoire and Republican Dino Rossi is one of the top-three gubernatorial races in the country. A little wishing and hoping by Republicans also come into play in the battleground-state calculation.

The last time our state voted for a Republican president was 1984, Ronald Reagan's second term. The last time a Republican was elected governor was 1980, when John Spellman won.

But the pundits and political wizards put us on the map anyway.

"Officially, we are a purple state," says Dwight Pelz, state Democratic Party chairman. "Kerry got 52.6 percent here, not a resounding number."

Pollster Stuart Elway says Washington is often on the map at this stage of the election. In other words, Washington is on the longer list of states candidates travel to and spend money in. Washington disappeared from the map in October 2004, as Republicans folded up much of their presidential effort here. Who knows if that will happen this time?

The reason we might really qualify as a true place of battle this time has much to do with the qualities of both presidential candidates.

McCain and Obama are both mavericks and appeal to independent and crossover voters. Voters in our state love to call themselves independents, which means both candidates have a shot.

McCain has been playing up his green credentials, and that can't hurt. Obama has spurred Obama-mania, if turnout at February caucuses is to be fathomed and understood.

Obviously, Obama has a better chance than McCain, because an increasing number of Washingtonians identify themselves as Democrats. According to Elway, in 2000, 30 percent of voters polled said they considered themselves Democrats. This year, the figured bulged to 39 percent. In 2000, 31 percent identified as Republicans, a number that has now dropped to 28 percent.

The way I look at it, Obama is a rock star right now — maybe a little dinged up by the rigorous primary season, but still a rock star.

By November, after a little Swift-boating by Republicans and some mistakes of his own — he has the absolute worst taste in pastors — he will be a mere mortal. That means an opportunity for a competitive race.

So the money will pour in, the candidates will arrive. The questions will be asked. Maybe a few helpful answers will be forthcoming.

It might be a reach to call Washington a truly competitive state. But (wink, wink) let's listen to what they have to say and play along.

Joni Balter's column appears regularly on editorial pages of The Times. Her e-mail address is jbalter@seattletimes.com; for a podcast Q&A with the author, go to www.seattletimes.com/edcetera