Will Obama wave sink Rossi?

This time, they mean it. Younger voters flocking in huge numbers to Sen. Barack Obama's rallies are fired up — so much so, they can make history in November.

In state after state, a wave of people ages 18-29, even 18-34, are voting in primaries for the first time, coming out in big numbers for Obama. If they are just as pumped in November, they will change not only the calculus for the presidential election but also, potentially, the fate of candidates down ticket.

Gov. Christine Gregoire and Republican candidate Dino Rossi, locked in a close contest again this year, have to be eyeing those enthusiastic voters, asking: What impact will they have on our gubernatorial race? Congressional contests? Even state attorney general?

A considerable one, perhaps. Remember, Obama voters by the thousands overwhelmed Washington's Democratic caucuses in February.

"Younger voters generally speaking are identifying more as Democratic or Democratic-leaning these days," said John Zogby, of Zogby International, an independent polling company.

Do these folks break 2-to-1 or 3-to-1 Democratic? That is not clear. In Oregon this week, younger voters favored Obama over Hillary Clinton by a more than 2-to-1 margin.

Clinton at the top of the ticket would have been better for Rossi, because Republicans, frankly, find Clinton easier to vilify and tie to Gregoire.

Obama may be Rossi's worst nightmare, and I say that believing Rossi starts with a reasonable chance to win. Three of four polls show a close race — yes, even in a year when the Republican brand has been trashed by an unpopular president.

Republicans concede Obama causes more trouble for their candidates by bringing out so many young voters. Most of these voters are liberal or moderate Democrats — or with politics not quite formed. In this particular year, voters who don't know or care much about either Rossi or Gregoire will break in favor of the governor.

Of course, it is only May, and a lot can happen. Local issues will be very important.

"Democrats are running a national election, on Iraq and George Bush," says pollster Bob Moore. "Republicans need to make it more of a local election, more of a personality election."

Rossi could stage just the right campaign and attract independents flocking to the candidacy of maverick John McCain. Pollsters believe McCain has a good chance nationwide and could have his own pull.

In 2000 and 2004, younger people comprised 20 percent of voters in the general election. This year, experts say they could make up 22 to 23 percent of the total. That's a lot of voters in states like Washington and Oregon, where many young voters reside.

Rossi is no dummy. His Web site features the single, concise, if heavily overused, term that sells: change. He has been out of office, she has been in office. In the largest type I have ever seen on a Web site, Rossi blares the word "Change."

This year, it is a seesaw battle between anyone new — advantage Rossi — and anyone with an R after their name — advantage Gregoire.

Oregon pollster Tim Hibbitts joins numerous pundits and pollsters who believe Bush is killing GOP candidates all over the country.

"Anyone who says George W. Bush is not a drag on Dino and Republicans in virtually every state in the country, at this point, is not facing reality," Hibbitts said.

The vulnerability of the GOP is not hypothetical. Three Republican House members have lost in special elections this year.

McCain, the soon-to-be Republican nominee, and Rossi need to run from Bush like scalded dogs if they are to be successful, Hibbitts says.

Some Republican insiders believe Congressman Dave Reichert is in trouble, not because his opponent Darcy Burner, is anything great, but because the Democratic tide could be so high it sweeps out moderates in swing districts. And the 8th District is ready to swing.

Reichert is running against time in a district attracting more high-income, highly educated people, and becoming more Democratic by the day. One day, he will get wiped out.

I've even picked up Republican jitters about state Attorney General Rob McKenna, who is a stellar attorney general. Voters traipsing so far down the ballot may not know much about him.

All these races are just getting started. Gregoire was smart to endorse Obama. It gives her credibility with younger voters. Rossi is a likable, strong candidate. He would be a lot stronger if that pesky Obama would stop whipping up equally pesky new, young voters.

Joni Balter's column appears regularly on editorial pages of The Times. Her e-mail address is jbalter@seattletimes.com; for a podcast Q&A with the author, go to www.seattletimes.com/edcetera