Why the region is in such a twist about growth

A successful region, such as ours on the shores of Puget Sound, must expect more people as the jobs and the attraction of coastal climates shift world populations toward us. That's a reasonable expectation, although figuring out how to do something about it is less predictable.

Last week, regional figures announced what they hope to do about it in the far-reaching Vision 2040 plan put out by the Puget Sound Regional Council, the outfit charged with funneling money and ideas into the local cities and counties.Reading the Vision 2040 plan is a real eye-opener, but seeing how all this will be accomplished is a head-scratcher.

First, the basics: The envisioned plan for the four counties basking on central and south Puget Sound is to try to channel growth (meaning people) into the core cities. Everett would double in population, Tacoma would gain another 127,000 residents, Seattle and Bellevue would be considerably denser in their neighborhoods and up by 300,000 people between them.

The banana peel is that we don't know what's going to happen; we can only estimate.

Vision 2040 disallows the creation of new urban centers, such as Redmond Ridge and the upcoming mega-urban center in Pierce County south of Bonney Lake. The one county executive who spoke against this provision was Snohomish County Executive Aaron Reardon, who has exactly such a plan on the running boards of his coupe. Rarely are regional leaders going to vote to diminish their own constituencies.

The predicted death of new urban centers was rationalized by Tacoma City Councilman Mike Lonergan in The Seattle Times' coverage by reporter Keith Ervin.

Such new centers are an "oxymoron," Lonergan was quoted as saying, because they overwhelm rural roads as the new residents drive elsewhere to work, shop and attend school.

Now he tells us.

But Pierce County is going to contribute its version of a self-contained urban center and it was Pierce County officials who happily cut the ribbon for Cascadia.

The stick to be used in herding all the cities and counties toward density is a promise from the PSRC that regional funding for roads may be cut from any jurisdiction that doesn't accept the particulars of Vision 2040.

It's good that somebody has a vision for our future. But like predicting the Mariners season of 2040, I'm skeptical that any vision with such bold designs for our future neighbors can prevail in the face of very local interests.

A majority of dozens of participating cities voted in favor of accepting Vision 2040 as their future. Notice that the local governments are endorsing this plan, and excuse my sneeze at this point, but it is the proliferation, like pollen, of local governments that has proved regional planning so wrong.

The commercialization of North Bend, the sprawl of Carnation, the intensity of building around Lake Tapps and the swift carnage of the character of Maple Valley and south Snohomish County are the result of increased population, urban land prices and, primarily, local government's acquiescence.

Many local leaders in office back in the day now admit Redmond Ridge was a mistake. The rationale then was either cluster the development into an urban center or watch it pepper the landscape with smaller cul-de-sacs. Everyone now thinks Redmond Ridge was a mistake — except the people who live there.

Vision 2040 cannot steer human nature, let alone the decisions of future local governments. OK, it's a plan, but I suggest it's top-down and not bottom-up.

A regional plan would start first with the reduction in the levels of government, something the region seems reluctant to accept. A vision for 2040 would provide for streamlined decision-making, which this plan does not.

It's the containment of human vice that is so startling in these plans, and the belief that the people of the future will do exactly what we tell them to do.

James F. Vesely's column appears Sunday on editorial pages of The Times. His e-mail address is: jvesely@seattletimes.com; for a podcast Q&A with the author, go to Opinion at seattletimes.com