After the defeat of Proposition 1

Ok let's talk about something few proponents of the massive roads-and-transit package want to hear about: What happens if the ginormous $18 billion Proposition 1 on the November ballot goes down to defeat?

And word on the street is it is probably going down.

Whenever officials in the Puget Sound area try to create new transportation opportunities, it takes about 14 seconds for public reaction to devolve into roads vs. transit, gray concrete vs. green buses or light rail.

So patiently, carefully, our locally grown transportation whizzes whipped up a concoction that meets a variety of needs.

But what if it doesn't work?

I am not clairvoyant or disrespectful toward people who worked diligently to put the package together. But really, what if it goes down? The "what next" should be part of the debate before the vote.

My belief is, a smaller plan will come back in the next few years. I am voting against the package, not because I love roads and hate transit or vice versa. Obviously, we need both.

I am voting no because Proposition 1 is just too big and overwhelming. The taxes supporting it would go on for an eternity.

Our region desperately needs some road-and-transit improvements but the numerous taxes required to pay for so many projects at once makes our region less and less affordable for middle- and lower-income families.

It's not as if Seattle residents last year refused to approve $365 million to improve city roads and bridges. They approved it. It's not as if King County residents at the same election balked when asked to increase the sales tax for huge improvements in bus service. They said yes.

Step by step, we are pricing longtime residents and seniors out with so many proposals that require higher taxes — sales tax, car tax, all of it.

So if the roads-and-transit package flops, what next? A few scenarios:

• Civic leaders glom onto the effort to change the governance of the multitude of transportation agencies in our region. This is, ahem, a detour into an esoteric discussion about how to streamline management of varying agencies.

"It takes our eye off the problem," said King County Councilmember Julia Patterson, a vigorous proponent of Proposition 1. "It will be rearranging the chairs on the deck of the Titanic. You will still have the congestion and population influx."

There is nothing wrong with addressing governance. It is a convoluted mess, but it is also a digression that could consume years without producing new freeway lanes or transit options.

• The legislation creating the multicounty road plan allows two more public votes, though the political will to do that at this size will be nonexistent. Individually, King, Pierce or Snohomish county can go to the ballot with fewer projects. This sounds better than it is because many projects crisscross county lines.

• The Legislature could raise the statewide gas tax again for road projects. It took several attempts last time to collect sufficient votes. Projects have to be completed in Eastern Washington and Southwest Washington to garner sufficient support. Gas taxes cannot be used for transit.

• Here comes congestion pricing — as in, charging more to use the roadways at peak times to help traffic flow. Our citizens are not comfortable yet with this concept. Congestion pricing, experts say, does change motorist behavior to different times or transportation modes. It will take a while to build public support.

• Maybe we do smaller projects, a few at a time. The best solution might be to pick the next light-rail line that has the most ridership potential and lots of support, say University District to Northgate or Seattle to the Eastside. That way, the current Sound Transit project might be up and running and people will be more comfortable voting for additional rail mileage.

• The fall of Proposition 1 will be a campaign issue between Gov. Christine Gregoire, who supports the package, and her challenger in the 2008 rematch, Republican Dino Rossi. He can use this to flog her for not getting anything accomplished on transportation. She can counter that the people have spoken and why are you beating up the citizenry for saying no to something it doesn't want?

The doom-and-gloom crowd will say a no vote on the package will lead to Slow Growth Choke-itopia, where residents either move closer to where they work or the region chokes on its own success. Maybe fewer people move here because they hear you can't afford a house or the traffic jams are hell on wheels.

The most likely next step is a Son of Prop One, or Third Cousin, twice removed. Transportation planners should take the opportunity of a no vote to hunker down, trim the package and offer something more manageable. Cut it in half and suddenly we will have plenty to talk about.

Joni Balter's column appears regularly on editorial pages of The Times. Her e-mail address is jbalter@seattletimes.com for a podcast Q&A with the author, go to Opinion at seattletimes.com