Originally published Sunday, February 11, 2007 at 12:00 AM
David S. Broder / Syndicated columnist
Don't judge a Bush budget by its cover letter
Experience has taught us that the Bush administration's budget cannot be judged by its cover — or by the cover letter the president...
WASHINGTON — Experience has taught us that the Bush administration's budget cannot be judged by its cover — or by the cover letter the president puts at the start of each year's volume.
The message he released last week was headlined by the Page 1 declaration that "the budget I am presenting achieves balance by 2012."
It would be wonderful were deficits to disappear — if only it were true. But on the final page of the document, in Table S-10 on page 172, one learns the disturbing truth. In fiscal 2012, the president's target year, the gross federal debt will — by his estimate — grow by $372 billion.
How can this be? Well, the Page 1 claim is achieved by ignoring or minimizing a bunch of real-world challenges. For example, the president proposes just a one-year patch for the growing problem of the alternative minimum tax, which is whacking more and more middle-class families who thought they were beneficiaries of the Bush tax cuts. The one-year fix would cost the Treasury $47.9 billion, but no revenue is lost in the next four years — because Bush just ignores the problem.
Similarly, he assumes that the cost of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars will drop dramatically from $142 billion next year to $50 billion the following year.
And he takes advantage of all the arcane bookkeeping rules that exclude major costs and embrace more helpful numbers.
Rep. Jim Cooper of Tennessee, a Democratic crusader for honestly balanced budgets, pointed me to another back-of-the-book table that illustrates the point.
As he noted, Table S-7 shows that the $61 billion surplus Bush claims for 2012 — using all the gimmicks he can find — is achieved only by counting on the $248 billion in anticipated Social Security surpluses that year to wipe out the $187 billion deficit rolled up by all the other activities of the federal government.
In other words, Bush is borrowing from Social Security to achieve his budget surplus — and that money will have to be repaid out of future taxes, or beneficiaries will suffer.
What's sad about this chicanery is that, in some other respects, this budget is an improvement over those Bush has submitted in the past. Responding to a congressional mandate, he has put the short-term costs of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan into the regular budget, rather than withholding them until months later and then sending the big bill to Capitol Hill.
He also has described, in blunt terms, the dismal financial prospects for Medicare — premiums will have to increase fivefold to sustain the program unless some way is found to curb health-care inflation. As a start on alleviating that crisis, Bush has proposed $66 billion in savings over the next five years, achieved mainly by trimming payments to providers and boosting premiums for the well-to-do.
Congressional Democrats are screaming even about these modest changes, but the problem is real. Bush would be in a stronger position to secure these savings if he were not pretending he can balance the budget by 2012 while preserving all his tax cuts.
As Cooper says, "The happy talk from the White House will sap Congress' will to tackle the entitlement issues." The figures in Table S-10 are stark — and underline Cooper's warning.
In fiscal 2006, the past year, the total federal debt was $8.45 trillion. In 2012, by Bush's optimistic estimate, it will reach $11.49 trillion. That is $3 trillion of added debt in just six years.
More and more of that debt is held by foreign countries. Another table, buried back on page 234 of a supplemental volume, shows that the foreign holdings of U.S. government securities have more than doubled in the past five years, going from just over $1 trillion to $2.1 trillion. Japan and China are our largest creditors, increasing their leverage over our economy. And Uncle Sam has become the world's biggest borrower.
That's another fact you won't find anywhere in this budget.
David S. Broder's column appears Sunday on editorial pages of The Times. His e-mail address is davidbroder@washpost.com
2007, Washington Post Writers Group
Leonard Pitts Jr. / Syndicated columnist: A tragic clash of cultures
David Sirota / Syndicated columnist: Trade and globalization: We are what we buy and how we buy it
Guest columnist: Cut the South Carolina jokes, Seattle. Get ready to compete
Mourners gather at KeyArena for slain officer's memorial
Mourners gathered at KeyArena for the memorial service of Seattle police Officer Timothy Brenton on November 6, 2009.
nwjobs

Post a comment

Michelle Goodman blogs about work/life balance.
How to tell your office you're gravely ill
Post a comment
nwautos

Choosing a new sedan? Weigh the impact of your choice on your wallet and on the planet.
Post a comment
- Flags were key link to cop slaying, bombings
- Suspect shot as city mourns slain officer
- Bombs, guns found at home of suspect in Officer Brenton's slaying
- Briefs | Soccer: New Mexico suspends hair-pulling player Elizabeth Lambert
- How an underdog named Mike McGinn took City Hall
- 3 Cascade Mountain passes close due to snow; more rain, wind expected Sunday
- Huskies suffer another heartbreaking loss to UCLA
- McGinn pulling away as late ballots come in
- The birth of 'Grunge,' in photos by Michael Lavine
- Using anti-shooter tactics, civilian Army police officer brought down gunman
- U.S. House passes health plan
374 - Bombs, guns found at home of suspect in Officer Brenton's slaying
258 - Decision day for health care in the House
216 - Referendum 71 show's Washington's strategy for marriage equality is working
161 - Grading the game
158 - How an underdog named Mike McGinn took City Hall
90 - Beavers open as 10-point favorites against Huskies
86 - Sounders FC-Dynamo playoff Game 2 thread
81 - Game thread: Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks, Nov. 8
74 - Fort Hood shooting suspect had shown troubling signs
71
- Suspect shot as city mourns slain officer
- Flags were key link to cop slaying, bombings
- The birth of 'Grunge,' in photos by Michael Lavine
- Bombs, guns found at home of suspect in Officer Brenton's slaying
- 10 ways to take control of your health
- 10 investing missteps to avoid
- How an underdog named Mike McGinn took City Hall
- How do innovators think?
- Tlingit heritage helps glass artist Preston Singletary break new ground
- Danny Westneat | Lee the Horse Logger found slow wagon shrank tumor





