Democrat blowout

Republicans in our state will be scratching their heads for years trying to figure out how to solve a problem like Maria.

Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell, wrongly cast as the darling of liberal elites in just a few counties — and, more specifically, the woman who won only five Puget Sound counties in her first Senate contest in 2000 — staged a full-scale blowout this election.

Her 17- to 18-point lead exceeded even heady poll projections and shredded parts of the Cascade Curtain.

Here's the big deal about her big victory: Cantwell won Spokane and Whitman counties, and probably, Asotin County, in Eastern Washington.

She also won most of Western Washington, including more rural counties that had flipped and flopped over the years, such as Mason, Wahkiakum, Cowlitz and Skamania.

Six years ago, Cantwell won election against Republican incumbent Sen. Slade Gorton by a mere 2,200 votes, capturing only King, Snohomish, San Juan, Jefferson and Thurston counties — a Puget Sound uber alles victory if ever there was one.

This time, Cantwell won, or is winning, 22 of 39 counties, better even than the more-lovable U.S. Sen. Patty Murray, who won 17 counties two years ago.

Clearly, suburban, independent voters got so disgusted with the Iraq war they went for Democrats. You could see that train coming for months. What part of "the Iraq-policy stinks" don't Republicans get? Bye bye, Rummy.

But something else very powerful is also at play. Many rural and exurban voters in our state have, for the moment anyway, turned away from high-octane social issues back toward economic issues.

In the televised Senate debate sponsored by KING-TV and The Seattle Times, I made one of those notes-to-self about Cantwell. This was the Seattle debate. She'd already debated in Spokane. But she obviously was so comfortable with her Western Washington numbers she pointedly began homing in on Spokane County.

Cantwell mentioned Spokane more than once, highlighting the fact that it had the highest gas prices in the nation. Spokane is a place where paychecks tend to be low and high gas prices really pinch. Her strong grasp of energy matters mixed with her on-the-ground understanding of an important pocketbook issue paid off.

A most interesting county to watch is Clark County in southwestern Washington, which has been trending more middle-of-the-road of late. I first noticed a change in Clark County in 2005. Clark County is home of the ultra-conservative ex-Congresswoman Linda Smith, a county that went for Cantwell's opponent in 2000. Remember Initiative 912, the measure to call back the recently passed gas-tax increase? Voters last year refused to take their money back. They wanted road improvements. That vote might have been written off as conservative voters fed up with Portland-area traffic.

But in September this year, at the height of the nasty state Supreme Court primary fight, Clark County supported the more-moderate Chief Justice Gerry Alexander over conservative John Groen. Now, Clark County supported Susan Owens, the more-Democratic candidate, against Stephen Johnson for state Supreme Court. In the U.S. Senate race, Clark County backed Maria Cantwell by a margin she probably never dreamed possible — 12 points!

"The Republican Party nationally lost the suburbs," said Bryan Jones, director of the Center for American Politics and Public Policy at the University of Washington. "In Clark County, the Republicans lost the suburbs of Portland."

In other words, Clark County is becoming more like the city it sits across the river from.

In recent years, it has been said that state elections are sometimes won and lost in Pierce County, especially with its fast-growing conservative suburbs in the eastern part of the county. Cantwell lost Pierce County in 2000, but more recently set up a Tacoma office and campaigned like crazy there. She won by about 16 points.

The more long-term problem for Republicans is that the big three jobs in state politics are all but locked up the next several eons — by women, as it turns out.

Voters signed Cantwell up for six more years. Murray, who may become a very powerful senator now that Democrats have gained control of the Senate, has four years left in her term. She is popular enough to win until her hair turns blue, and it might.

Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire is a very strong governor but her re-election in 2008 is the Republicans' only hope for a top job in the next several years. If the economy is doing well, I bet she is re-elected.

So the growing crowd of back-benchers like Cantwell's opponent Mike McGavick or Dino Rossi, whom Gregoire beat, have fewer options than they think. Running against each other in the 2008 gubernatorial primary is probably not the Republicans' best plan.

No matter how you cut it, Democrats have much to crow about. Republicans can only look at the maps of broad voter support for Cantwell and weep.

Joni Balter's column appears regularly on editorial pages of The Times. Her e-mail address is jbalter@seattletimes.com