Why Bush might choose his old friend Gonzales

SAN DIEGO — Is Alberto Gonzales on the short list to replace retiring Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor?

It's hard to tell but, suddenly, he sure is on the tip of everyone's tongue. To listen to the press and the pundits, Gonzales is either the clear favorite — or a total long shot.

Personally, it wouldn't surprise me if President Bush nominated his old friend to the court. There are three reasons.

One, it's a plum appointment, and Bush tends to give those to people he likes and trusts, like Gonzales.

Two, the Harvard Law School graduate and former Texas Supreme Court justice has the right kind of top-drawer credentials.

And three, Gonzales has the added benefit of being in a position to help the president and the Republican Party win the hearts and minds of America's largest minority for a generation or more.

You see, if Bush follows through on his promise to appoint a Hispanic to the Supreme Court, that simple act should settle the question about which party is serious about inclusion. It won't matter how many mariachi events Democrats plan, or how much chips and salsa they lay out in future elections, a lot of Hispanics will embrace the Republicans as the new party of opportunity.

Yet, despite all that, I still wouldn't call Gonzales the favorite for the nomination. One big reason: The timing isn't good. It's much too soon after Gonzales' appointment as attorney general, and he's still getting the hang of how things work at the Justice Department. Besides, Bush must know that he's likely to get another bite at the apple, given the probable retirement of Chief Justice William Rehnquist. The president might decide to wait and give Gonzales a chance to catch his breath between confirmation hearings.

Of course, that's just my theory. I have a couple of Hispanic friends in the Bush administration who have their own ideas about why Gonzales might not be headed to the Supreme Court anytime soon.

Over dinner about a month ago, they laid out their argument. It's not that they wouldn't love to see it happen, they said. Nothing would make them happier — or more proud — than to see the man who made history by becoming the first Hispanic attorney general make more history by becoming the first Hispanic on the Supreme Court. And it's not that they have doubts about Gonzales' qualifications, credentials, temperament or people skills. He could do the job — and do it well.

It's just politics, they said. They predicted that Bush would use his first Supreme Court appointment to try to assuage far-right elements of the GOP by appointing a hard-line conservative. And, they said, those right-wing robes have never been a good fit for Gonzales.

They're right about that much. And it's something that Gonzales should take pride in. Judging from some of his written opinions from the Texas Supreme Court, Gonzales is not — on issues such as abortion and affirmative action — as reactionary as many right-wingers would like. In fact, he seems reasonable and full of restraint.

Which, of course, makes him completely unacceptable to those on the fringe. According to news reports, the anti-Gonzales campaign began within hours of the announcement of O'Connor's retirement when conservative groups around the country joined in conference calls to discuss how to convince Bush to not nominate Gonzales.

Oh please. Whatever Bush decides to do, he should pay no heed to this bunch. After all, bad timing is one thing, but bullying is something else. And just whom do these people represent anyway? If they are Republicans, then their own party has left them behind. It no longer resembles them or even recognizes them. The party they remember was an exclusive club. The one that exists today is one where the president speaks Spanish and the head of the Republican National Committee speaks to black and Hispanic groups about inclusion.

The president is the one who came out on top in two elections, and he can choose whomever he likes to sit on the Supreme Court. Besides, Bush doesn't react well to bullying. He recently told USA Today that "when a friend gets attacked, I don't like it" and said interest groups should "tone down the heated rhetoric."

Who knows? The president might end up choosing Gonzales just to spite his critics. And then won't things get interesting.

Ruben Navarrette's column appears regularly on editorial pages of The Times. His e-mail address is ruben.navarrette@uniontrib.com