Joni Balter / Seattle Times editorial columnist
Voter beware: Actual results may be polls apart

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On June 17, a few hours before President George Bush's plane touched down in Spokane for a campaign fund-raiser on behalf of Congressman George Nethercutt, pollster Bob Moore released his latest information about the presidential race in our state.

His poll was the only publicly announced tally that showed the race in Washington so incredibly close — John Kerry up a mere point over George W. Most polls the past six months put the race in Washington between 5 and 8 points, Kerry leading.

Though Moore is sometimes paid for his efforts by biased interests, namely Republican candidates or the state GOP, his work is first-rate and there is no suggestion numbers were cooked. But the timing of the poll's release made it seem like the numbers were part of the welcoming band for Bush.

Although Moore was not polling for the Bush campaign, announcing good news at a propitious time is one of the top 100 reasons for releasing a poll.

Polls are used for everything from pumping up the local political-industrial complex — i.e., legions of consultants, volunteers, advertisers, etc. — to trying to lure campaign cash.

In a vital election year, polls are coming at us at a rate of one every 38 hours, by some estimates, and the name of the game is "voter beware."

Pollsters, politicians and consultants observe at least one rule and a corollary: They rarely announce polls they don't want people to see; they do release polls they regard as good news.

A popular reason to release a poll is to change or create a public perception about a race, to make, say, the Nethercutt/Patty Murray contest seem closer or further apart than it really is or to tell other challengers in a race, "It's over, get out of the way. I'm the man."

King County Sheriff Dave Reichert, a Republican candidate for Congress in the 8th District, did that, effectively. He commissioned a poll early on showing his considerable name familiarity and created an impression of inevitability for himself. Soon, people began talking about Reichert the frontrunner.

Democrats play the same game all day long. In the Democratic primary for governor, candidates Christine Gregoire and Ron Sims tout polls that either try to end the primary contest early for Gregoire or keep it going as competitively as possible for Sims.

Gregoire's staff e-mails a poll showing her campaign ahead 30 points; Sims whispers he has information showing it's an 8-point race.

Use and abuse of polls reaches a peak in such a pitched election year.

When Bush returned to the Northwest and the ka-ching factory of donors in Medina last week, it was Democrats who used a poll to make a fuss. The poll done by another Republican pollster, Strategic Vision, showed the presidential race in Washington at 7 points, favoring Kerry.

"We put that out for the latest Bush fund-raiser," admitted a not-so-sheepish Paul Berendt, the state Democratic Party chairman. "We wanted to rain on the latest Bush parade. It was a little push-back and getting our message out there while Bush was in town."

Berendt says by and large polls are reliable and parties and campaigns make important decisions based on information they glean from pollsters.

But voters should always be cautious.

Astute consumers of polls should be aware of who conducted the poll as well as who sponsored it, says Patricia Moy, a University of Washington associate professor who teaches a public-opinion class that includes a critique of poll results. Keep in mind, the average reader would not normally recognize the name of a Democratic or Republican pollster.

Pollsters earn their money by helping candidates create an effective message.

Moore polled in the 5th Congressional District of Eastern Washington for Cathy McMorris, the Republican House leader running against two Republicans in the primary.

When the pollster first asked the basic who-would-you-vote-for question: McMorris got 25 percent, Larry Sheahan garnered 21 percent and Shaun Cross got 11 percent.

The pollster then offered that the two men in the race are lawyers, and, pointedly, McMorris is not. When voters were asked later in the same session whom they favored, McMorris zoomed to nearly twice her earlier number.

McMorris now knows she should repeatedly refer to her opponents as lawyers, as in, pond sludge, while explaining she has a business degree, lives in Colville, yada yada yada.

In the long run, most people in the Information Age would rather have polls than not. They provide a way for people to express opinions and enjoy a horse race when the real contest is still months away.

But polls or the timing of their release can be loaded. Read them, enjoy them and don't take any individual poll too seriously.

Joni Balter's column appears regularly on editorial pages of The Times. Her e-mail address is jbalter@seattletimes.com