Joni Balter / Seattle Times editorial columnist
Vance's 'domination' prediction may come back to haunt him

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State Republican Party Chairman Chris Vance is preternaturally effusive, prone to fits of bravado and unabashed partisan hype.

But accounting for his customary audacious braggadocio, I remember thinking he was on to something when he outlined a plan a year ago for further GOP domination of American politics. He predicted the re-election of George Bush, stronger control of the U.S. House and Senate, an increase of the current 28 Republican governorships.

In that June 2003 conversation, the war in Iraq seemed easy, almost over. And Vance was happy to elucidate for anyone who would listen the ultimate GOP scenario.

Channeling Karl Rove, long known as Bush's political brain, Vance described the equivalent of a big Risk game: The GOP would be strengthened and emboldened almost everywhere! The GOP would be in the best shape in Washington state in years!

When the 2004 election is over, the GOP indeed may retain control of the White House, the U.S. House and Senate. In our state, voters could elect the first GOP governor in 20 years, former state Sen. Dino Rossi.

But things have changed in the past 12 months. Bush's approval ratings have plummeted. The House and Senate remain longshots but are not completely out of reach for Democrats. And in Washington state, Vance may have some explaining to do about the congressional delegation. Come January, the delegation may have the fewest Republicans in 12 years.

How awesome and strategic is that?

Washington's delegation currently is composed of six Democrats and three Republicans — U.S. Rep. George Nethercutt in Eastern Washington's 5th District, Rep. Jennifer Dunn in the 8th District, which includes Bellevue, and Rep. Doc Hastings in Central Washington's 4th District.

There is a very real possibility Democrats could grab the two open seats for Congress — Nethercutt is leaving to run for U.S. Senate against Patty Murray; Dunn is retiring.

Incumbent members of the House are among the most difficult to unseat. Nationwide, only a few true swing districts are in play. The two open seats in our state are seats Republicans have to defend.

In the 8th District, polls show likely contenders will be Dave Ross, the silken-voiced Democratic talk-show host, against popular King County Sheriff Dave Reichert, a Republican. Other compelling candidates in the race could advance, but so far it looks like Ross vs. Reichert.

The political stripes of the 8th District may be changing. It is safe to say the district is Jennifer Dunn Country, not necessarily Republican Country. Al Gore won the 8th District in 2000. Bill Clinton won the district in 1996 and 1992. And Democratic Gov. Gary Locke won with 54 percent of voters in the district in 2000. Former Republican Sen. Slade Gorton, who ran for re-election in 2000, won the 8th narrowly.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report calls the 8th a tossup.

The 5th District in Eastern Washington pits Democrat Don Barbieri, a political newcomer, against one of three Republicans: Shaun Cross, Larry Sheahan and Cathy McMorris.

The same Cook Report puts the 5th District in its "leans Republican" column. The 5th is a primarily rural, conservative place where voters strongly backed George W. Bush in 2000.

Barbieri, a prominent Spokane businessman involved in hotels and real estate, is well-known and well-liked. He is an oddity in Eastern Washington these days: a Democrat with a shot at winning.

The most glaring hole for Republicans lies in the 1st District, which wraps from Redmond to parts of Mukilteo to Poulsbo, the seat held by U.S. Rep. Jay Inslee. No well-heeled challenger in sight.

King County Councilwoman Jane Hague planned to run against Inslee, but she bailed, citing family reasons.

Even Rep. Rick Larsen, running in the swing 2nd District of Everett and points north to the Canadian border, does not appear to be facing terribly stiff opposition. His opponents so far have not raised a lot of money.

Despite his constant chest-beating, I think Vance is one of the better GOP chairmen to come along in years. He is hard-charging and committed to offering solid candidates. He is so bullish about his party and his candidates, he is humorous at times.

But if Ross and Barbieri win, Vance would have to eat a plate of crow. The last time Washington's congressional delegation was so lopsided and Democratic was 1992, when the state had eight Democrats and one Republican, Dunn, in Congress. And Republican Slade Gorton was the senior U.S. senator.

Seven or eight Democrats in Congress out of nine members, plus two Democratic U.S. senators, assuming Patty Murray wins re-election, would make Washington one of the most Democratic delegations in the country — a far cry from the amazing GOP takeover Vance touted one year ago.

Joni Balter's column appears regularly on editorial pages of The Times. Her e-mail address is jbalter@seattletimes.com