Guest columnist
The Nader factor: Kerry should be nervous

By Carl Jeffers
Special to The Times

Carl Jeffers

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Now that Ralph Nader has failed to obtain the 64,000-plus signatures necessary to appear on the Texas presidential election ballot, many are writing him off. In fact, John Kerry might have been better off had Nader actually made it onto the Texas ballot.

Two reasons. First, there's no such thing as hurting Kerry in Texas. He's not carrying Texas against President Bush — period. Lyndon Johnson today might have trouble carrying Texas against Bush. Second, the fact that Nader did not make the Texas ballot might increase some sympathy support for him among independents who may think he is getting a raw deal. That is not good for Kerry.

In addition, Nader has now raised $600,000 in campaign contributions for his presidential run. That amount now qualifies him for federal matching funds, which can keep his campaign going; and more ominously for Democrats, Nader reached $600,000 this year faster than he raised that same amount in 2000.

But it's not all bright skies for Nader, either.

When Nader first announced his presidential bid on NBC's "Meet the Press," the media focused a great deal of attention on him, and for several days he was covered in virtually every media discussion on the presidential campaign. Democrats were furious with Nader, and their anger was palpable. But they were soon relieved to find that because the Nader campaign wasn't exciting anyone, the extensive media coverage faded, particularly as people better understood Nader's potential problems getting onto many ballots.

No Levey Collin Levey is taking the week off.

By announcing as an independent rather than running again as the candidate of the Green Party, Nader relinquished his opportunity to piggyback on whatever level of success the Green Party enjoyed from 2000. That success would have automatically qualified him for the ballot this year in at least 30 to 35 states.

As an independent candidate, Nader has to start from scratch and get anywhere from 1 to 5 percent of a state's registered voters from the previous election to sign petitions to place his name on the ballot.

Except for Republicans who hope that he can again be a spoiler, Nader is having a tough time getting angry Democrats and independents to support him this time.

Here is the best example of the problems Nader faces this time. Michael Moore, the rather outlandish and far-left critic of the Bush administration, and Bill Maher, the outspokenly liberal host of "Politically Incorrect" and "Real Time," both say they voted for Nader in 2000. And they both now have announced that they are supporting Kerry in 2004. That is exactly the switch taking place in every philosophical and political niche where Nader hoped to garner support.

But the polls still provide anxiety for Nader haters. Without Nader included in the polling, Kerry has been leading George Bush by 1 to 3 points. Other polls have Kerry and the president almost dead even. But when Nader is factored in, he gets somewhere from 3 to 4 percent of the vote, and the resulting re-calculation always shows Nader's support coming directly from Kerry's numbers.

When running against an incumbent president, you simply cannot afford to give up 3 to 4 points to a third candidate. History tells us that if an incumbent president is running for re-election, the only way he is defeated in a three-way race is if the third-party challenger is taking votes away from the incumbent president, not from the other major party challenger (Ross Perot and George H.W. Bush in 1992).

Nader met last week with Kerry to discuss how the two of them could "cooperate to defeat George Bush." Nader can cooperate by getting out of the race altogether.

But the meeting itself did get Nader more media attention. And if you like the president, you can continue to do as William Bennett and others have done — give money to both Bush and Nader. Politics makes strange bedfellows.

Carl Jeffers is a Seattle-and Los Angeles-based columnist and a KIRO-AM (710) political analyst for the 2004 campaign. He hosts KIRO and WLS Chicago radio talk-show programs. Contact him at cjintel@juno.com