Joni Balter / Seattle Times editorial columnist
Battleground Washington, a paler shade of blue

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For years, our state has been solidly blue, a bright spot on the Democrats' map. But suddenly, Washington, which has not backed a Republican presidential candidate for 20 years, looks a little paler because Republicans have declared our state a battleground.

A recent Washington Post political map portrayed Washington as light blue, leaning Democrat, which is about right. The last time it was Republican red was 1984.

Since the 1988 race between Michael Dukakis and George H.W. Bush, Washington voters consistently backed Democrats for president. The state supported Democrats for governor for 20 years and two Democratic senators in recent years. The congressional delegation is six Democrats, three Republicans.

But voting for the Legislature has been closer. For three years, voters elected a House with 49 Republicans, 49 Democrats. Democrats now control the House; Republicans hold a one-vote lead in the Senate. That's close, like the rest of our 50-50 nation.

Washington has become one of 15 to 22 battleground states in the presidential contest for a variety of reasons:

• Money, money, money. The political parties traditionally have operated by something called the 5-percent rule. If the previous presidential election was won or lost in a particular state by a margin of 5 percent or less, it's close enough to fight for four years later.

This year, with so much cash available — Team Bush raised an amazing $185 million — the definition of a battleground state has expanded.

Pundits refer more frequently to a 6-percent or even higher threshold.

In 2000, Al Gore beat George W. Bush by 5.58 percent in Washington, so voilà, Washington appears on this year's GOP list.

Enough loose cash is floating around to fight for votes in places that might not have been worked so hard other years. Parties are experimenting. Colorado, which Bush won by 8 points in 2000, just appeared on the Democrats' list.

• Saying makes it so. Sentiments in states that are not pure Republican or Democrat bounce around over time. Simply declaring a place a battleground and then spending big sums of advertising money softening up the audience has a psychological and real impact.

• Ralph Nader. Voters in Washington and Oregon have demonstrated a willingness to waste votes to make a righteous statement about a self-righteous candidate. Nader got 4.1 percent of the 2000 vote in Washington; 5 percent in Oregon. A large percentage of Nader voters subtract from the Democratic candidate, although a few would back Bush and others would sit out the election.

The GOP looks at a state like Washington with a vigorous Nader audience and figures why not go for it? So they will.

• Different levels of battleground states. Oregon is a top-tier battleground state; Washington is second tier. The Democratic-leaning Portland metro area is a smaller percentage of the state population than the similarly leaning Seattle metropolitan area when compared with the rest of the state. Also, with a bow toward strong anti-tax sentiment, Oregon may be trending away from Democrats.

• Ground war for every vote. The closeness of the 2000 presidential race, the closeness of polls this year, have compelled both campaigns to fight for every imaginable vote — house by house in some cases. In many states, including Washington, campaigns plan to return to old-fashioned tactics of doorbelling and rallying the grass roots. The ground war will be fought in addition to the air war on TV and radio.

• Population changes. No state is politically stagnant. Nearly 500,000 people have moved to Washington in the past 10 years. Driver's license records show a lot of them came from California, Texas and Oregon. No one knows for sure who they are, but many left other places to seek jobs or a better lifestyle. Their politics may differ from folks who were born here or moved here before the latest migration.

• Kerry himself: The Kerry campaign is not yet well-organized in Washington. The campaign will open an office here and name a local campaign director later this month. Pollster Stuart Elway found Bush running against "any Democrat" fares worse than Bush running against Kerry specifically. The candidate has to come here and spend the time earning voters' affection. A campaign spokeswoman said he would come to the state around May 26.

No poll so far shows Bush beating Kerry in our state, but a couple of polls show Bush within 4 or 5 percentage points of Kerry.

That's close enough for the bluster and bluff of this early stage of the race. The larger-than-usual number of battleground states will shake down by early fall when the parties narrow their focus — and focus their spending — on states they feel more certain they can win.

Joni Balter's column appears regularly on editorial pages of The Times. Her e-mail address is jbalter@seattletimes.com