Joni Balter / Seattle Times editorial columnist
Doing the math on Rossi's campaign

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The latest installment on the "Dino Rossi for Governor" Web site is two parts wishful thinking, one part rookie babble: "New poll has governor's race in dead heat." Quick, please send the author a copy of the newest version of "Political Math for Dummies."

The Elway poll, to which Rossi's Web staff refers, shows Democratic Attorney General Christine Gregoire with 26 percent support so far, Republican Rossi with 25 percent. Democratic candidates King County Executive Ron Sims and former Supreme Court Justice Phil Talmadge, garnered 9 and 3 percent, respectively.

Not all Democrats are instant converts to Gregoire, but if she wins the primary, the lion's share of D's would support her. It is no dead heat if three Democrats combined add up to 38 percent and the only Republican in the race has 25 percent.

Washington's governor race is wide open for the first time in eight years, since Gov. Gary Locke decided not to seek re-election. Rossi's energetic crew is right about one thing. The race likely will be tighter than most people expect, because Rossi is the GOP's best candidate in years, and voters around the country are favoring GOP governors. Besides, Democrats won't be able to resist beating up on each other in the months leading up to the primary.

The race is just getting started, but the taking of the public pulse has been under way a while.

Among all the candidates, Rossi's support grew most in the past six months, according to two polls conducted by Elway Research, one in March, one last November. The November poll included King County Sheriff Dave Reichert, a Republican who subsequently bailed out of the governor's race and moved to the 8th District congressional contest.

Reichert's voters — most of them, anyway — logically moved to Rossi's column. Any Republican with a pulse usually can round up at least 35 percent of the vote.

Rossi, who resides on the Sammamish Plateau, resonates in the increasingly powerful suburban crescent wrapped around Seattle. He grew up in Mountlake Terrace, his father was a teacher in North Seattle, his grandfather a coal miner in Black Diamond.

Rossi wisely decided not to support any of Tim-What's-His-Name's tax-cutting initiatives this year. The former state senator serves on the board of the Nature Conservancy, a land-conservation group that tries to work in a bipartisan way to save wild places.

But Rossi is conservative on social issues, such as abortion. He believes abortion should be allowed only in cases of rape, incest or to protect the life of the mother. Washington voters have gone to the polls four times in recent decades to support a woman's right to choose.

Rossi also rushed — foolishly, I think — to embrace President Bush's backing of a constitutional ban on gay marriage. More Washingtonians oppose gay marriage than support it, but voters here don't like the federal government using the Constitution to tell people in the states what to do about personal matters such as marriage.

Gregoire remains the undisputed front-runner. She has run and won statewide three times. She is a forceful, fair-minded attorney general who was a lead negotiator in settling a $206 billion lawsuit against the tobacco companies.

She stumbled when her office missed a key legal deadline in a case, costing the state $19 million. If it turns out to be an isolated incident, voters are likely to forgive — every dog gets one bite. But it is trouble if a pattern can be established.

A big challenge in months ahead lies in forging a position on a proposal to create a $1 billion-a-year education trust fund — Initiative 884. Education boosters propose a penny increase in the sales tax to boost spending for preschool through higher education.

Rossi already staked his position — no on all initiatives this year. Sims favors the trust fund. Gregoire says the education enhancements themselves have great merit, but she is troubled by an increase on an already regressive sales tax. One day soon, she will have to say exactly how she will vote.

During the legislative session, Rossi, the Ways and Means Committee chairman who resigned from the state Senate to focus on the governor's race, was able to raise campaign cash while Gregoire was not. He has gathered $1.1 million. She has collected $1.4 million overall.

Gregoire may have to return as much as $300,000 raised with the help of Emily's List, a political-action committee that boosts selected female candidates. The state Public Disclosure Commission is investigating whether Emily's List bundled several donations and forwarded checks to Gregoire's campaign. The donations may be legal, or the campaign or Emily's List could face penalties

Seven months to go and the race could become quite close. But there is much more ground to cover before it turns into the dead heat Rossi's hyperbolic Webmeisters so prematurely proclaimed.

Joni Balter's column appears regularly on editorial pages of The Times. Her e-mail address is jbalter@seattletimes.com

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