Guest columnist
Why many Democrats are antsy about Dean

By Carl Jeffers
Special to The Times

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In the aftermath of Al Gore's endorsement of Howard Dean for president, the fact that the other Democratic candidates dismissed it and even attacked Gore for making it is, in reality, testament to how important the endorsement is.

Yes, the establishment wing of the Democratic Party — including Bill and Hillary Clinton — has reservations about Dean. But those are not based on a personal animus or dislike of Dean, as conservative commentators would like you to believe.

Like the line in "The Godfather" movie, "This is not a personal thing, this is business."

The business at hand here is that Democrats want to make sure that, regardless of the outcome of the 2004 presidential election, their party remains strong and viable in Washington, D.C. — a force to be reckoned with, especially if the president is George W. Bush.

No true establishment Democrat had endorsed Dean until Gore did. The former vice president and 2000 presidential nominee is absolutely an establishment Democrat.

The other candidates know that sometimes it only takes that first brick to start an avalanche of all the other bricks. That's why Gore's endorsement of Dean resulted in attacks by the other candidates.

Gore should have at least phoned his former running mate, Joe Lieberman, to give him a heads up about the pending announcement. But the fact is, Gore's endorsement does represent a crack in the Democratic establishment's wall of resistance to Dean. Once that wall starts to crack, Dean might begin wrapping up the nomination before the convention.

Without any weakening of the wall, however, Dean not only is robbed of momentum, but the other candidates are kept in the race heading toward the convention.

Gore's endorsement aside, here is my theory why so many establishment Democrats have serious reservations about Dean and why Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry remains a serious contender, with establishment insider support, even as the former Vermont governor increases his lead in the polls.

If Kerry gets the Democratic nomination for president, he may lose to Bush, but by a smaller margin than Dean. Democrats will hold their own in the House and the Senate, maintaining enough votes in both houses to impact the president's agenda and occasionally assert their own.

If Dean gets the Democratic nomination, there is no margin for loss. He has to defeat Bush, because if Dean loses, I'm convinced it will be by a landslide.

A failed run at the White House by Dean could precipitate an electoral disaster in which the Democrats might lose five to seven seats in the Senate and 15 to 30 seats in the House. A loss of that magnitude would give Republicans not only a numerical majority in both houses of Congress but a working majority as well.

Under that scenario, Democrats would no longer be able to filibuster or otherwise block any of the administration's programs and social-agenda items. It would mean that there would be no way for the Democrats to block any Supreme Court nominees Bush might send up — conservatives who would reverse Roe v. Wade, retreat on social progress in the country, or allow a weakening of civil liberties under Attorney General John Ashcroft and the U.S. Patriot Act.

That is the dilemma the Democrats are facing as they select their next nominee for president.

Do they follow their hearts and fall in with a candidate who expresses their anger at the war in Iraq and who challenges a "compassionate conservatism" that shows no evidence of compassion?

Or do they protect their interests and make sure that even if the worst happens and they lose, they still will be able to put the brakes on a president whose agenda, from their perspective, is running off the tracks?

Dean may be a great candidate for the Democratic Party, and he might even make a great president — but he could also be a George McGovern.

And this time, many Democrats feel that the stakes are too high to take that chance.

Carl Jeffers is a Seattle- and Los Angeles-based columnist and business consultant. He hosts a Chicago radio talk-show program and is an MSNBC-TV political analyst. Contact him at cjintel@juno.com

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