Fantasy Football
It pays to watch the matchups

By Jerry Faull
Seattle Times staff

Peyton Manning

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Now that you've drafted your fantasy football team and Week 1 is nigh, it's time to determine a roster-management plan and set your first lineup.

Better not mess it up or your plans for a perfect season will go the way of Ricky Williams.

OK, no one truly believes an undefeated campaign is a real possibility, but who among us fantasy freaks hasn't taken a look at our freshly drafted roster and felt a twinge of invincibility?

I know I have, only to lose my first two games and find myself feeling like a winless season is a real possibility.

The truth of the matter is no squad in a competitive league will go winless or lossless because all teams are likely to be pretty evenly matched at the top — at least until injuries start adding up.

With that in mind, realize the difference between making a playoff run or playing out the string in November and December will come down to depth and proper roster management throughout the entire campaign — not just when you're desperate as the season winds down.

So, what can you do to your Week 1 roster to give your team the best chance for victory?

There are basically two schools of thought: Trust those you envisioned as starters on draft day and play them regardless of outside influences, or investigate the defenses your players will face and come up with a lineup that best takes advantage of matchups.

Strong, rational arguments can be made for both approaches, but it really comes down to your own psychological makeup: Are you a risk taker or do you prefer the status quo?

If you're a risk taker and feature Peyton Manning as your starting quarterback, you might be inclined to put him on the bench in Week 1 if your top backup quarterback has a favorable matchup.

Manning's Colts take on the Patriots in New England, where the Indianapolis quarterback has had seven passes intercepted in his past two games while throwing for just two touchdowns.

I drafted Manning with the 15th overall pick in one of my leagues, but I'm considering starting Houston's David Carr (11th-round selection) in Week 1 because he faces San Diego, which allowed 36 touchdown passes last season, seven more than any other team.

	David Carr

The Manning-Carr example may seem a bit extreme, with a chance to backfire badly, but the status-quo-type approach can also can get your team in early trouble.

For instance, I blindly played Donovan McNabb in Weeks 1 and 2 last year even though he had tough matchups (Tampa Bay, New England) and ignored my backup, Jon Kitna, even though he was facing suspect defenses (Denver, Oakland), had thrown 15 touchdown passes in his last 10 games of 2002 and had a home-run threat in up-and-coming wideout Chad Johnson.

One might say that I would have had to be clairvoyant to predict Kitna (at best a late-round pick) would outplay McNabb to start the season, but looking back it seems all the signs were there to make the move justifiable.

Why didn't I do it? Simple. I used a second-round pick on McNabb and was afraid to get burned. Never again.

The lesson: If you dig a little deeper into statistics, trends and history and trust hunches when you're setting your lineup, chances are you'll earn an extra win or two — and the respect of your competitors.

Play him this week

• WR Justin McCareins: With Santana Moss dealing with a hamstring injury, this Jet should get a chance to shine against a suspect Bengals secondary.

• RB Duce Staley: New Steeler gets a chance to make a good first impression with a matchup against the Raiders, who allowed the most rushing yards in the league last season.

• RB Charlie Garner: After a rough 2003, Garner looks to get off to a strong start against the run-generous Redskins defense in his quest to repeat '02 numbers (1,903 total yards, 11 TDs).

Watch him this week

• WR Freddie Mitchell : He developed good on-field chemistry with McNabb during the end of last season, and should supplant Todd Pinkston as the Eagles' No. 2 receiver.

• RBs Tyrone Wheatley, Justin Fargas : New Raiders coach Norv Turner prefers a power back, so Wheatley is the starter. But Fargas is a breakaway threat who may prove too explosive to keep on the bench.

• QB Joey Harrington : In his third season, Lion has the weapons and a favorable first matchup to get off to a good start.

Got a question about fantasy football? Send them to Jerry Faull: jfaull@seattletimes.com, or Jerry Faull, Seattle Times Sports, 1120 John St., Seattle, WA 98109.

His look at fantasy football will appear each Thursday during the NFL season in The Seattle Times.

Copyright © 2004 The Seattle Times Company

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