NBA draft dilemma: Who's first?

Remember the "Who's No. 1?" debates that preceded the NBA draft a year ago?

Greg Oden or Kevin Durant?

Well, here we go again.

This year's crop of draft hopefuls doesn't offer a once-in-a-generation center like Oden or a freakishly gifted scoring machine like Durant, however, the debate still narrows to two leading candidates.

Michael Beasley or Derrick Rose?

For most of the college season, Beasley, a 6-foot-10 power forward, put up impressive numbers that propelled him to the top of many mock drafts. The 18-year-old Kansas State freshman dominated Big 12 opponents and finished with a better season (26.2 scoring average and 12.4 rebound average) statistically than Durant, the 2007 consensus Player of the Year.

"If you just look at the numbers, he had a much better season than I did," said the Sonics rookie who averaged 25.8 points and 11.1 rebounds at Texas as a freshman. "I don't think there's anybody [in the draft] that has more talent than Mike. It's all about whether he's the right fit for whatever team ends up with the No. 1 pick."

Rose, who was considered a middle-of-the-pack lottery pick at the start of the season, has climbed to the top of many teams' draft lists after carrying Memphis to the NCAA tournament championship game. The 6-3 freshman point guard averaged 14.9 points, 4.7 assists and 4.5 rebounds during the season and would have been the tournament's Most Outstanding Player if the Tigers hadn't blown a nine-point lead in the final two minutes of the title game.

One Western Conference scout said the hype surrounding Rose is "just like American Idol."

"He was on the big stage last," the scout said. "The last person gets better scores and people forget about the person early in the year who gets 20 points and 20 rebounds."

Tuesday's draft lottery will define the "Who's No. 1?" debate more clearly.

Seven of the 14 teams in the lottery, including the Sonics, have an obvious need for a point guard and would likely choose Rose with the top pick. The other half of the lottery, teams such as Memphis and Milwaukee, appear to favor Beasley.

"Clearly those two are at the top of everybody's list and in many aspects you can say the draft really starts with the third pick, however, this year's draft has a totally didn't flavor than last year's," said Marques Johnson, FSN college-basketball analyst. "Last year was a two-person draft going in and a lot of unknown commodities.

"In this draft, outside of Rose and Beasley, you've got four to five players, some really high-caliber, talented players, who should be — I won't say superstars — but guys who have the potential to be All-Stars."

The Western Conference scout said the lottery is divided into three categories. Nos. 1-2, Nos. 3-7 and Nos. 8-14.

Beasley and Rose are in the first category.

USC guard O.J. Mayo, Stanford 7-foot center Brook Lopez, who will likely play power forward in the NBA, Indiana guard Eric Gordon, and Arizona point guard Jerryd Bayless are believed to fall in the next tier.

And the last group comprises UCLA center Kevin Love, Texas guard D.J. Augustin, LSU forward Anthony Randolph and Italian League forward Danilo Gallinari.

"The lottery is tremendously important," the scout said. "Obviously, you benefit if you move up. But conversely, it hurts if you fall. There's a drop-off after that first group. Now if you're talking about everybody else in the lottery, well the difference isn't that great. You can find some players just like teams did last year, when it was supposed to be a two-man draft."

Atlanta chose Al Horford with the third pick, and the Hawks' power forward helped them snap a nine-year playoff drought and was the only unanimous first-team choice for NBA All-Rookie.

The Sonics believe they found a starting small forward with the No. 5 pick in Jeff Green. And Al Thornton, the 14th choice, may have been the steal of the lottery.

And this year's steal?

"To me that player could be O.J. Mayo," Johnson said. "I'm a big Mayo fan. His speed with the basketball is second only to Derrick Rose. People want to put the knock in him that he's overrated, overhyped and may carry some baggage, but at every level he's proven he can play. This is a deep draft at power forward and guard and this will probably be the year when you see more guards going higher than ever because that's the direction the game is moving.

"Guards are not only playmakers, but they have to finish. You're seeing that in the playoffs with Tony Parker, Chris Paul and Deron Williams. That's why I think Rose will go No. 1 and I wouldn't be surprised to see 4-5 guards taken with the top 7-8 picks."

Percy Allen: 206-464-2278