Sonics Preview | Understanding the spin game

The Sonics open their NBA season tonight, and fans have a lot of questions about the young team.

Is 19-year-old rookie Kevin Durant as good as everyone says?

Did new coach P.J. Carlesimo and general manager Sam Presti bring some of that San Antonio magic with them?

And this one, of course: Will the Sonics' 41st season be their last in Seattle?

We don't have an answer for that one yet, just more questions:

Question: What does Clay Bennett's Oct. 31 deadline mean?

Answer: When Bennett's Oklahoma City ownership group bought the Sonics and Storm last year, he promised a "good faith" effort for one year to secure a local arena deal. That year ends today. The deadline is not binding on any Seattle officials and it is not entirely clear what it means.

Bennett has said he will file with the NBA for relocation if the deadline passes with no arena deal, but later backed off a bit, saying he would not file immediately after the deadline passes.

Dan Mahoney, a Bennett spokesman, would not answer questions about the deadline but issued a statement: "Mr. Bennett and the ownership group want the focus to be on Sonics basketball and the opening of the regular season. On Nov. 2, he will have further comment on the organization's next steps."

Q: When will Bennett file paperwork with the NBA to relocate the teams and what happens then?

A: The Sonics have until March 1, 2008, to apply in writing to NBA commissioner David Stern for relocation if the team wants to play in another city for the 2008-09 season. Once Stern receives the application, he has 10 days to refer the matter to a relocation committee, composed of no fewer than five NBA Board of Governors members chosen by the commissioner.

Within 120 days of receiving the relocation application, the relocation committee must give a report to the board and make a recommendation.

If the committee denies the request, then the process ends and there are no appeal avenues, but the team could pursue a legal solution much like Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis, who sued the NFL in an attempt to move the team to Los Angeles.

If the committee recommends the request, the board will vote on it after seven days and no longer than 30 days. A majority vote is needed for approval and the Sonics would be able to vote.

The board could apply a relocation fee or set any sort of stipulations before voting. One thing members will want to know is whether the Sonics are going to be able to get out of their KeyArena lease.

Q: Doesn't the NBA want the Sonics to stay in Seattle?

A: You would think the league would be foolish to turn its back on 41 years of history, which includes two trips the NBA Finals and a world championship in 1979, but Stern's comments last week suggest he supports the team's effort to move.

"We'd love to have found the path that would see them staying," he said after two days of meeting with the Board of Governors in New York. "But right now it just seems that either they'll be there for the duration of their lease or they won't, depending on the outcome of these litigations or some divine inspiration that someone may have with respect to a new arena and a suitable funding for it.

"That's just the way I think the owners look at it, and I think that's the way I feel about it."

Other than testifying before the state Legislature in Olympia last year, Stern has yet to take a hands-on approach to the arena negotiations between the ownership group and local officials like he has in Sacramento.

Seattle is a larger media market than Oklahoma City and has more possible revenue streams and potential sponsors because of the number of major companies in the area. But the key issue is the arena. Without a new building, Bennett says he's moving the Sonics and Storm.

Q: Why isn't a KeyArena remodel acceptable to Bennett?

A: KeyArena is the NBA's smallest venue and lacks many of the restaurants, concessions and other amenities — especially for wealthy customers — that other arenas offer. Because of that, team owners say KeyArena does not generate enough cash to maintain a large NBA payroll while giving owners a chance to make a profit. Furthermore, the arena lease has required the team to share $8 million or more a year in KeyArena suite and concession revenue with the city of Seattle.

Bennett says KeyArena would not work even with a major remodel, though he has not produced specific financial information to back that claim.

Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels has offered to share the cost of a $200 million KeyArena expansion, plus renegotiate the team's lease so the Sonics would no longer have to split suite revenue with the city. City officials estimate that would generate between $8 million and $20 million a year in additional revenue for the team. But Bennett has refused to talk with Nickels about that offer, insisting that a new arena is the only acceptable solution.

Q: What's the status of the lawsuits against Sonics owners?

A: Seattle has sued to force the Sonics to play out the remainder of the team's lease, through the 2009-10 season, at KeyArena. The Sonics wanted that dispute to go to arbitration, but U.S. District Judge Ricardo Martinez ruled Monday that the case will remain in federal court. That was a victory for the city, but it doesn't decide the underlying issue in the lawsuit — whether the city can reject a monetary buyout and force the team to stay at KeyArena. By keeping the case bogged down in federal court, the city might be able to frustrate Sonics owners' efforts to quickly get out of the lease.

The Sonics also face two class-action lawsuits from season-ticket holders who claim the team has fraudulently offered KeyArena ticket deals for coming years even though owners intended all along to move to Oklahoma after this season. Those lawsuits are likely to be combined into a single case.

Q: How hard will it be for the Sonics to get out of the lease with the city?

A: That depends on the ongoing lawsuit. The case is likely to turn on whether a judge or jury upholds the "specific performance" clause in the KeyArena lease. That clause is supposed to allow the city to force the Sonics to play at KeyArena through the end of the lease in September 2010. But legal experts say courts are often unwilling to enforce such clauses, ruling instead that a monetary buyout is adequate compensation for breaking a lease early.

Q: How much would the Sonics have to pay the city if the team is able to break the KeyArena lease early?

A: Assuming the Sonics abandoned KeyArena after the 2007-08 season, the team would still owe the city $2 million in rent for the 2008-09 and 2009-10 seasons. In addition, the city could seek compensation for lost revenue from concessions and suites and possibly other economic damages as well. However, the lease also says the city would deduct from the Sonics' bill any cash earned from booking new concerts or other events at KeyArena.

Q: How much money has the new ownership group lost so far? How much will they lose this season?

A: The Sonics have not made detailed financial information public, but Bennett said during his last Seattle news conference that the team had lost $17 million in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30. The previous ownership group, led by Starbucks Chairman Howard Schultz, claimed losses of more than $55 million over the previous five years.

Q: Is there anyone out there working behind the scenes to come up with a new arena plan?

A: There are quiet efforts going on, but nothing appears close to fruition. Seattle officials still are pushing for a KeyArena remodel, and local business leaders have talked about the possibility of buying the Sonics from Bennett and/or building a new Eastside arena. Bellevue developer Kemper Freeman said "everything is quietly in motion ... even in the middle of the muck," but offered no details.

Q: What's new with the Muckleshoots' offer to provide land for a new arena near Emerald Downs?

A: The idea appears dead. The Muckleshoots paid for a study that found that an arena near the horse-racing track could work. The tribe offered to donate 26 acres of land for the arena, hoping that would spur serious talks about a financing plan. But Rollin Fatland, a Muckleshoot spokesman, said "there has been no interest expressed" by Sonics owners or key political leaders.

Q: Would Bennett consider selling the teams?

A: For now, no. He has steadfastly said the teams are not for sale. However, if he's forced to play here for the next three seasons and the Sonics and Storm continue to lose millions, which he claims in the demand for arbitration will happen, then perhaps Bennett might sell in a year or two.

Q: If the Sonics/Storm leave, will Seattle be next in line for new NBA/WNBA teams?

A: There is precedent here.

After a failed attempt at the ballot box to fund a publicly supported arena, Charlotte politicians devised a plan that didn't require voter support on a $260 million arena. However, they demanded George Shinn sell the Hornets. The NBA allowed Shinn to move the team to New Orleans and promised Charlotte an expansion franchise.

The Bobcats became the NBA's 30th franchise in 2004.

The league has no current plans to expand, but there's a possibility Sacramento, New Orleans, Atlanta, Milwaukee or Memphis could relocate in the next 10 years.

Q: Is it possible the Sonics would move and the Storm stay?

A: Yes, but not likely. Bennett didn't rule out the possibility at a recent news conference, noting the passionate Storm fans in Seattle, and the fact NBA and WNBA franchises have split before. After Charlotte relocated to New Orleans, the WNBA's Sting stayed in Charlotte. The Sting has since folded, however, and the NBA returned to the city. Bennett has said he believes strongly the WNBA would work in Oklahoma City and has said repeatedly the Storm is not for sale.

Q: Does it matter what the Sonics do on the court? Will their success, or failure, or attendance, have any affect on the decision to move?

A: Yes. The ownership group and city officials will spin whatever happens on the court and in the stands to support their positions.

A low turnout at the gate would likely cause Bennett to draw the conclusion fans don't support the team anymore. If the Sonics produce a losing record, which is expected, the city might assume that ownership intentionally sabotaged this season to drive away fans.

But if the Sonics win and the fans turn out in good numbers, that would figure to help the city's case in keeping the team here.

Seattle Times assistant sports editor Bill Reader and reporter Jayda Evans contributed to this report. Jim Brunner: 206-515-5628 or jbrunner@seattletimes.com; Percy Allen: 206-464-2278 or pallen@seattletimes.com