Nation & World

MOSCOW — Anti-government protesters managed to gather a third huge crowd in the center of Moscow on Saturday, undeterred by arctic, bitter cold or by the near certainty that Vladimir Putin will win a six-year presidential term next month.

This time, Russian authorities were prepared, organizing a simultaneous, and also huge, rally in defense of Putin where speakers issued dire warnings of the possible consequences of continued protest: revolution and the breakup of the country.

The sun was a remote white disk above the horizon, and the temperature was measured at minus 4 degrees Fahrenheit. The demonstrators, swaddled in fur hats and parkas, hopped to keep their feet from freezing.

By the end of the frigid day, it appeared the demonstrations had not lost momentum and could continue into the spring, posing an unexpected challenge to Putin, who has never faced sustained opposition.

"It's clear nothing will change, but at least we can demonstrate — six months ago, nobody could have imagined it in Moscow," said Marina Segupova, 28, an interior decorator, who was wearing ski pants and a scarf encrusted white from her frozen breath. "We want the military and the police to come over to our side. We will show our goodwill, we will show that we're kind."

"It's clear that there will be no change now," she said. "But we are a snowball, and we are rolling."

Crowd estimates

City authorities said Saturday's anti-government crowd was larger than either of the two large rallies in December, offering an estimate of 36,000. Organizers gave an estimate of 120,000. Police claimed the pro-government rally, made up largely of government workers, was nearly four times the size of the opposition march, but journalists who were present said that seemed widely exaggerated.

With precisely a month left before presidential elections, polls show Putin, who is prime minister, is far ahead of his four rivals in the race, and he has a good chance of breaking the 50 percent barrier to win in a first round.

If he falls short of that, he would be almost certain to win in a second round three weeks later, though the process would cast further doubt on the strength of his public mandate.

The protest movement, meanwhile, has not coalesced into a coherent political force. It lacks leaders willing or able to challenge Putin, still by far the country's most popular politician. Maksim Trudolyubov, the editorial editor of Vedomosti, a daily newspaper, said the protests' major impact is to broadcast a message that Putin cannot continue to rule in same style.

"We are standing at a really important threshold for this country," Trudolyubov said in an interview. "Right now, if nothing extraordinary happens — a black swan, or something — he is of course the president in March. But in March, he will be a very different president, a president with a different level of legitimacy."

A series of large, peaceful demonstrations were set off by parliamentary elections Dec. 4, which were widely condemned as fraudulent.

Upwelling of anger

Many participants say, though, that the upwelling of anger dates back to September, when Putin revealed his plans to return to the presidency in the spring, replacing his protégé, Dmitry Medvedev. He has been Russia's paramount leader for 12 years, and can legally serve two more six-year terms.

At Saturday's pro-government rally, a series of minor celebrities condemned the anti-government protesters, who were referred to at different points as "idiots and traitors" and "Bolotnaya snot," after their gathering place at Bolotnaya Square.

"We say no to the destruction of Russia," Sergei Kurganyan, a political scientist said from the stage. "We say no to the American Embassy, where these terribly degraded people turn for help. As soon as Michael McFaul (recently appointed U.S. envoy to Russia) arrived, they went there in an organized crowd, like cows to a watering-place. We say to this: No, no, and again, no!"

Putin suggested he was surprised and pleased with the turnout at the pro-government event. He acknowledged, answering a journalist's question, that some people may have been prompted to attend by their employers, but said the gathering was far too large to be attributed to administrative pressure.

"It is completely obvious that people just came out to express their opinion, and that position is that they support what we are doing," Putin said, in comments by the Interfax news agency. "For me, this is very important, and I have already said that I cannot work without it."

Many participants admitted that they found it difficult to predict what would happen after the presidential elections. Aleksei Navalny, the anti-corruption blogger who has emerged as the most charismatic opposition figure, was thronged by admirers who shouted "Aleksei, we will follow you," but he seemed to actively avoid taking any leadership role and did not address the crowd.

Neither did Mikhail D. Prokhorov, a presidential candidate who marched arm-in-arm with his sister, as his supporters changed "Prokhorov, our president!"

The demonstrators' goals still seem murky. Some said they hoped new presidential elections would be called in a year or two, or at least postponed until the fall, and a few held signs that read "Navalny 2014." Sergei Berkovich, who heads a U.S. oil company in Moscow and was in the crowd, said his goal was just to keep the protest movement alive.