Nation & World

VANCOUVER, B.C. — Canada for years has had one of the most generous immigration policies in the world, welcoming tens of thousands of asylum applicants who claim to be fleeing persecution in their homelands.

But the Conservative government has begun rolling up the welcome mat, stepping up efforts to track down and deport thousands whose applications have been denied.

The clampdown is likely to be felt not only across Canada but in the United States.

Fresh from the revelation that Los Angeles arson suspect Harry Burkhart traveled to California from Vancouver after losing his nearly three-year bid for refugee status, Canadian immigration analysts warn America could become a new destination for thousands of asylum applicants.

"This is about to become a staging inventory for potential illicit entry into the United States," said Richard Kurland, an immigration-policy analyst and attorney in Vancouver.

The most dramatic change is scheduled to take effect in late June, with a $540 million "balanced refugee reform" program designed to speed up the asylum-review process and start slicing through a backlog of more than 42,000 refugee cases.

The tough timelines call for asylum applicants to be given a hearing within 90 days or even less for refugees from some countries, with most appeals heard within an additional 120 days, accompanied by stepped-up enforcement to eject those who fail to prove they would be persecuted if sent home.

U.S. officials say asylum claimants who are denied refugee protection in Canada will not be automatically turned away at the U.S. border, despite a 2004 agreement that bars new arrivals in either country from entering to claim asylum. That pact was put in place to halt the flow of asylum seekers from America, with its comparatively tough immigration policies, into Canada, where winning asylum had been easier.

It was intended to target new arrivals, not those who already had gone through Canada's asylum process and faced potential deportation, said Mike Milne, spokesman for the U.S. Customs and Border Protection office in Seattle, which supervises the Western U.S.-Canada border.

"Anybody seeking asylum or claiming a credible fear of persecution gets to articulate their case to an asylum officer," Milne said. "We would take them into detention, and they would have the same right as anyone seeking asylum to a hearing."

Canadian officials say that's far from clear and suggest it's more likely that anyone showing up at the U.S. border after failing to win asylum would be returned to Canada quickly — and then deported — under the 2004 agreement. "Canada and the U.S. have a strong record of cooperation with respect to migrant, refugee and asylum issues and the management of our shared border," said Nancy Caron, spokeswoman for Citizenship and Immigration Canada, the chief border-enforcement agency.

In any event, U.S. officials say they do not anticipate a massive increase — at least in those seeking to cross the border legally — because they expect Canada will allow some failed applicants to stay under other exemptions and will deport as many as possible of those deemed not at risk of persecution in their home countries.

Still, with Canada typically granting about 40 percent of asylum petitions, the prospect of moving more rapidly through 42,000 pending cases and the more than 124,000 already targeted for deportation, analysts say, is bound to make migration patterns more unpredictable.

"If you deprive a large number of people of asylum options, they're going to look for the next place to go, in large numbers," Kurland said. "So it is utterly incomprehensible to not figure out that come June-July 2012, when the new rules kick in, there will be a drive to seek sanctuary somewhere else, such as the largest neighbor in North America."

Lack of funding until now has prevented the Canadian Border Services Agency from making much headway against the more than 124,000 immigrants targeted for deportation, most of them failed asylum claimants. At least 44,000 have ignored orders to leave.

"Once all avenues of appeal have been exhausted, persons are expected to abide by our laws and leave Canada," said Renee Ribout, spokeswoman for the border-services agency. "It is extremely challenging, since most people facing removal have no desire to comply."

Refugee advocates, meanwhile, worry that the stepped-up timelines, while purportedly designed to help immigrants by giving them a speedier decision, could hurt more than help.

The 90-day deadline for hearings gives applicants little time to find lawyers and prepare complex paperwork.

"They're responding to a real problem, that the process is taking too long, but there's a balance in the middle — you need to give people enough time," said Janet Dench, executive director of the nonprofit Canadian Council for Refugees. "We're primarily concerned about women who've survived sexual violence, (as well as) gays and lesbians, victims of torture. A very fast process will actually compromise the possibilities of protection for some of these most vulnerable groups."