Originally published January 16, 2012 at 5:53 PM | Page modified January 16, 2012 at 7:45 PM
Iran warns neighbor Arab states not to back an oil embargo
In a provocative move over the weekend, Iran warned Arab regimes not to join a possible Western-backed oil embargo to further weaken Iran's embattled economy.
Los Angeles Times
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CAIRO — The deepening economic and diplomatic pressure against Iran is sharpening tensions between Tehran and oil-producing Arab states that have long relied on the West to counter Iran's nuclear program and its regional ambitions.
Iran's growing isolation has agitated sectarian mistrust in the Persian Gulf between its Shiite-run government and Sunni Muslim-controlled states including Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. In a provocative move over the weekend, Iran warned Arab regimes not to join a possible Western-backed oil embargo to further weaken Iran's embattled economy.
Mohammad Ali Khatibi, Iran OPEC governor, said on Sunday that such a move would be regarded as an "unfriendly gesture."
The comments came as Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao visited oil giant Saudi Arabia. China, Europe, South Korea, Japan and other Asian nations have energy ties to Iran but are being urged by Western nations to reduce Iranian oil imports amid international sanctions targeting Iran's nuclear program.
Iran has countered by threatening to close the shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world's oil passes. Such a blockade, which could lead to military conflict with the U.S., would hurt Iran but also disrupt Arab oil exporters and rattle financial markets.
"Khatibi's statement was rhetoric, but if Iran can't sell its oil, then no other country in the Persian Gulf should be able to, either," said Forouz Rajaeifar, a conservative political analyst in Iran. "Our stability is their stability. We can't allow other Gulf states to threaten us. We need to come to an agreement with them to do what is good for all of us."
During a visit last week by Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, Japan committed to begin reducing its oil imports from Iran. Soon after Geithner departed, however, Japan began giving conflicting accounts of what it had agreed to do.
Stepped-up sanctions and a protracted crisis in the Gulf would almost certainly exacerbate Iran's already sharp economic turmoil ahead of parliamentary elections in March. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has attempted to rally patriotism against foreign sanctions, but that may fade amid harsh financial times.
"This is a very serious implication for the Iranian economy and the legitimacy of the Iranian regime," said Mustafa Alani, senior adviser and program director for security and terrorism studies at the Gulf Research Center in Geneva. "If there are no petrodollars, they can't sustain the economy.
"They're panicking and they're trying to find a way to deter the international community, the regional states, from participating in this (potential oil embargo)."
Iran's pointed words at its Gulf neighbors — many of whom are U.S. allies — are the latest wrinkle in the region's sectarian power plays. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have accused Iran of instigating uprisings by Shiite minorities in their countries. Arab states are also concerned about Iran's widening influence in Shiite-dominated Iraq after the withdrawal of U.S. forces in December.
Gulf countries led by Qatar have condemned Iranian ally Syria for a violent crackdown on protests that has killed thousands over the past 10 months. Qatar orchestrated Syria's suspension from the Arab League and has pushed for sanctions against Damascus. If Syrian President Bashar Assad steps down or is overthrown, Iran could lose the conduit of its military and financial ties to the militant groups Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
But bolstered counterintelligence services and cover from the U.S. military presence, including the 5th Fleet in Bahrain, may make Gulf states less susceptible to Iranian threats than in the past.
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