Democrats say they see a bounce

WASHINGTON —

The story line for Election 2010 has been set for months: Republicans are on the march; Democrats are in deep trouble. Is it possible that Democrats have begun a comeback?

Several Democrats say there is modest movement in their direction and some reason for optimism after many dismal months. But late September can be a fickle time in an election year. It was four years ago. So, are signs of more enthusiasm for Democrats false indicators or the start of something real?

Some reasons Democrats feel better than they did a month ago:

• A Washington Post poll in Maryland shows Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley opening up an 11-point lead over former Republican Gov. Robert Ehrlich. The race was essentially even a few months ago.

• In Ohio, Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland has bounced back against former Republican Rep. John Kasich. Most of the latest polls show Strickland almost even with Kasich, although still not looking as strong as he should.

• In recent weeks, Gallup's measure of voting intentions among registered voters has shown parity between Democrats and Republicans — after earlier showing a sizable GOP advantage. Gallup officials caution, however, that Republicans look stronger among likely voters.

• President Obama drew 25,000 people at a rally Tuesday on the University of Wisconsin campus in the first of a series of events designed to energize young voters.

These signs alone are not enough to suggest there is a dramatic turn under way. But they are reason for hope for Democrats struggling to hold House and Senate majorities.

"I don't want to overstate the trend, or suggest it is happening everywhere, but in several places I definitely have seen Democrats starting to come home and feel more strongly about the importance of preventing a Republican takeover of the Congress," one Democratic strategist said in an e-mail Wednesday.

This strategist said he had seen several polls in competitive races where Democratic Party identification was rising — and in places where it had declined previously. He also said there is growing preference for a Democratic Congress.

Much has been made about parallels between this year and 1994, when Republicans captured the House and Senate in a landslide. The overall climate for Democrats for most of this year has appeared as bleak as it was then, if not worse. But some Democratic strategists now say, hold on, the comparisons are not necessarily accurate.

One strategist who was in the thick of the battle in 1994 said nothing the Democrats tried that fall had an impact on the voters. "Everything you tested — nothing!" he said. This year, given the weakness of some Republican candidates, attack ads are having a more predictable effect. "We move numbers in individual races," he said. "In 1994, it didn't matter."

Democrats believe that, in recent weeks, more of their partisans have awakened to the prospect of a Republican Congress influenced by tea-party sentiments and don't like it. The stakes have become clearer.

There are limits, however. For every sign of movement toward Democrats, there is a race where Republicans are doing better.

The most surprising of the past week is Connecticut, where Republican Linda McMahon, a former professional-wrestling executive, has narrowed the lead of Attorney General Richard Blumenthal to single digits.

In Ohio's other big race, former Republican Rep. and Bush administration official Rob Portman has opened up a big lead over Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher. In Colorado, Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet is struggling against Republican Ken Buck. House Democrats are on defense in district after district.

For Democrats, the signs of life among partisans will help, but mostly in Democratic strongholds — blue states where there are competitive races, such as California or Washington or Maryland.

But in closely contested states and districts, where Democrats made significant gains in 2006 and 2008, that alone won't be enough. Democrats must appeal more successfully to independents.

The reality is, changing the fundamentals of any election is difficult. Democrats can do little to change negative impressions about the economy. Obama's approval ratings have shown no real sign of improvement. Republicans still are more energized than Democrats.

Pessimistic Democrats still fear they will lose the House. Fighting at the margins, they see some encouraging signs. But will that be enough to prevent a wipeout in November?