U.S. trying to prevent Sudan conflict

The Obama administration, which came to office promising stronger leadership on Sudan, is now scrambling to salvage a 2005 U.S.-backed peace accord and prevent Africa's largest nation from sliding back into civil war.

In recent weeks, the administration has doubled its diplomatic presence in South Sudan and dispatched a respected former ambassador to help with negotiations on an independence referendum for the region, which is scheduled for January.

President Obama and his advisers are also mulling over incentives to persuade Sudan's leadership to cooperate with the referendum, officials say.

Former officials and activist groups say the Obama administration's efforts over the past year have been hobbled by infighting and a lack of high-level attention.

"President Obama's approach to Sudan may well lead to his being the one who 'lost' Sudan and the opportunities for peace" in the 2005 accord, said Roger Winter, who helped negotiate the deal that ended Sudan's 21-year civil war.

The peace agreement provided for religious and political autonomy for the Christian and animist south until the referendum. Polls indicate that the mostly black south will vote to secede from the largely Arab Muslim north, its antagonist in the civil war.

But the Sudanese government, dominated by northerners, has not reached agreement with the south on such issues as demarcating the border and figuring out how to divide revenue from the country's oil fields, located mainly in the south. Election preparations are behind schedule.

A delay in the referendum — and a separate one to determine who controls the oil-rich border town of Abyei — could reignite the civil war. Such a conflict might dwarf the one that has left at least 300,000 people dead in Sudan's western Darfur area, analysts say.

After months of internal debate, the Obama administration unveiled a policy last October that would reward or punish Sudan's government based on whether it met benchmarks regarding Darfur, the north-south agreement and counterterrorism.

The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Susan Rice, favors a harder line on the Sudanese government, while Obama's special envoy to Sudan, Scott Gration, has argued for more incentives, according to people familiar with the deliberations.

Senior administration officials say they have been working behind the scenes to build international consensus vital to the peace accord's success.

For example, Vice President Joseph Biden discussed the Sudan situation with African leaders, including South Sudan President Salva Kiir, in a visit to the continent in June. Biden got a commitment from Egypt, Sudan's northern neighbor, to support the referendum, according to senior administration officials — an important breakthrough.

Obama attended a June meeting between national-security adviser James Jones and former South Africa President Thabo Mbeki, a key player in implementing the referendum results, officials say. Obama also has raised the Sudan issue with foreign leaders, including President Hu Jintao of China, which is a major investor in the African country, officials say.

Nonetheless, U.S. officials say they don't have many ways to further penalize Sudan's government. "It's important to recognize how heavily sanctioned Sudan is right now," said a senior U.S. official.

Among the incentives the U.S. government could offer are upgrading relations and removing Sudan from the list of terrorism supporters.

Some officials are concerned about easing pressure on Sudan's president, Omar al-Bashir, at a time when Darfur is still plagued by violence and the peace process there has stalled. .

Bashir has been indicted by the International Criminal Court on genocide charges for the atrocities in Darfur.

The U.S. State Department announced last week that a former ambassador, Princeton Lyman, had been dispatched to Sudan with a team to help negotiate the remaining sticking points.