One phase in Iraq war ends, but U.S. work isn't done

WASHINGTON — The U.S. combat mission in Iraq officially ends Tuesday, 2,722 days after U.S.-led troops stormed across the border from Kuwait. The remaining 49,000-some U.S. troops are supposed to depart by the end of next year.

The U.S. mission is far from over, however, and it may have to be extended, according to former senior U.S. officials, foreign diplomats and private analysts.

Iraq's leaders, worried about the country's stability, may ask for at least some U.S. troops to remain as an insurance policy, Iraqi and U.S. observers said.

"There is a reasonable probability the Iraqis, once they've got a new government in place, will reassess" and request a change to the 2008 status-of-forces agreement, said Ryan Crocker, who was the U.S. ambassador to Iraq from 2007 to 2009.

President Obama, who will mark the end of the combat mission with an Oval Office speech Tuesday, hasn't said how he would treat such a request.

"We've made a commitment ... to have our troops out by the end of 2011, and that's a commitment we intend to keep," deputy press secretary Bill Burton said.

If the Iraqis ask, however, "it would be damn hard to say no," said Daniel Serwer, a vice president of the nonpartisan U.S. Institute of Peace.

Shaky situation

The uncertainty is a sign of Iraq's precarious position as U.S. attention shifts to this fall's elections, domestic economic issues and the growing war in Afghanistan.

Iraq is better off in many ways since 2007, when a buildup of U.S. combat brigades, a change in military strategy and payments to Sunni Muslim tribal leaders to fight al-Qaida in Iraq stemmed sectarian conflict.

Violence has declined, raw sectarian feelings appear to have ebbed and political horse-trading is the norm.

Iraq isn't as well off as U.S. officials had hoped it would be by late August 2010, however, a deadline that Obama set and that isn't stipulated in the U.S.-Iraqi forces agreement. Many things have improved, but the political system remains deadlocked.

Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana, a leading moderate Republican voice on foreign policy, said Friday that the timing of Obama's speech was unfortunate, given Iraq's state of flux. It reflects not so much reality in Iraq as the president's need to show he's made good on a campaign promise to withdraw from Iraq, Lugar said.

Asked in a C-SPAN interview if the artificial timeline is a mistake, the senator replied: "Probably."

Officials had hoped Iraq, which held elections five months ago, would form a government before the Islamic holy month of Ramadan started Aug. 11. That didn't happen. Basic services such as electricity are spotty, and there's no agreement on divvying up Iraq's oil and gas riches, and no resolution of territorial disputes between Arabs and Kurds.

Flaws in constitution

Many of the problems stem from weaknesses in Iraq's 2005 constitution. It lacks deadlines for political-party leaders to form a government and leaves the president and the judiciary powerless to take charge in case of a stalemate.

"The constitution was written too early, by people grasping for power," said a senior Iraqi diplomat who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The result is a maze of ambiguities that "would be comical if it was not causing so much pain."

Further, in a worrying sign on the security front, more Iraqi soldiers and police officers have been killed in attacks this month than at any time since September 2008, according to data from the website icasualties.org.

Obama and his aides have cautioned that the Iraq mission isn't over. "The hard truth is, we have not seen the end of American sacrifice in Iraq," the president told a Disabled American Veterans conference Aug. 2.